Y ahora Fitch

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Fitch redujo las calificaciones crediticias de Bélgica, Chipre, Irlanda, Italia, Eslovenia y España, todos con perspectiva negativa (comunicado de Fitch).

La perspectiva negativa implica 50% de probabilidad de una nueva degradación en los siguientes dos años.

A diferencia de S&P hace dos semanas, Fitch no degradó la máxima calificación crediticia de Francia y Austria, por lo que se mantiene la calificación AAA del fondo europeo de rescate (FEEF).

Del comunicado de Fitch:

The downgrade for Cyprus, and the additional one-notch cuts for Italy, Spain and Slovenia (ie a total of two notches for each) reflect country-specific concerns primarily related to the banking sector in Cyprus and Slovenia; an adverse shift in the interest-rate growth differential and hence public debt dynamics in Italy; and a significantly worsened fiscal and economic outlook in Spain.

In Fitch’s opinion, the eurozone crisis will only be resolved as and when there is broad economic recovery. It is evident that further substantial reforms of the governance of the eurozone will be required to secure economic and financial stability, including greater fiscal integration.

As previously noted, in the absence of greater clarity on the ultimate structure of a fundamentally reformed eurozone, the gradualist approach adopted by politicians to systemic reform will continue to be punctuated by episodes of severe financial volatility, entailing a significant economic and financial cost that erodes sovereign creditworthiness. It also means that a ‘break-up’ of the eurozone cannot be wholly discounted, although in Fitch’s opinion the risk of such an outcome remains small.

Los mercados no parecieron sorprendidos. Bloomberg notó que no hubo gran reacción por parte del mercado.

Fitch también hizo comentarios específicos sobre Italia y España.