Reino Unido: Informe de inflación señala menos probabilidades de QE en mayo

Patrick Signoret

El Banco de Inglaterra publicó su informe trimestral sobre la inflación. Como explica Claire Jones del blog Money Supply de FT, las proyecciones de inflación sugieren que es menos probable que haya más estímulo cuantitativo en mayo.

En esta página están todos los vínculos: informe completo (PDF), resumen, gráficas y tablas, conferencia de prensa, podcast, etc.

Claire Jones acerca de la importancia de las proyecciones de inflación de este informe:

It’s all rather technical, but if the mid-range of the Bank’s forecasts shows inflation falling below 2 per cent in the medium term, then markets will assume that more quantitative easing is on the way. More likely than not in May, when the Bank will have finished the £50bn-worth of asset purchases it announced last week.

If inflation is shown as hitting the target, then that’s likely to be it on QE unless the economic outlook worsens substantially in the coming months.

Aquí está la gráfica de proyecciones del Banco de Inglaterra:

Jones concluye:

The MPC’s fan charts now show inflation more-or-less on target over the forecast period, and the risks to inflation are now judged to be broadly balanced. This would suggest that there will be no more QE in May. However, the MPC has also left itself some wriggle room, as inflation is still shown to be a little below target over the next couple of years. The governor also said inflation was “more likely to be below the target than above it for a good part of the three-year forecast period”.

Ésta es la gráfica de probabilidades a la que se refiere:

(Las gráficas vienen del reporte de inflación del BdI)