William Dudley (FOMC) cauteloso sobre la economía

Patrick Signoret

William Dudley de la Fed de Nueva York (y miembro votante del FOMC) fue cauteloso al hablar sobre la economía en un discurso el lunes.

Reconoció que han habido buenas noticias:

The incoming data on the U.S. economy has been a bit more upbeat of late… Real GDP expanded at a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, the fastest growth since the first half of 2010. The average monthly gain in nonfarm payroll employment moved up to 256,000 in January and February from 164,000 in the fourth quarter. Sales of light-weight motor vehicles rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.1 million in February, the highest since early 2008. The ISM nonmanufacturing index rose for the third consecutive month in February and now stands at its highest level in a year. Even the housing starts data have firmed somewhat, although from quite depressed levels.

Pero tiene tres razones para ser cauteloso (“it is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods”).

(1) Los dos años anteriores comenzaron bien o mejor, y terminaron decepcionando.

(2) El buen desempeño puede ser en parte por efectos de clima:

Moreover, the United States has experienced unusually mild weather over the past few months…I suspect that it temporarily boosts economic activity overall. For example, the mild weather is certainly conducive to higher than normal levels of construction activity, and we did see a surge in hours worked in that sector over the past few months.

(3) El crecimiento fuerte del cuarto trimestre 2011 fue más por acumulación de inventarios que por ventas y consumo:

More importantly, real economic activity has yet to be strong enough on a sustained basis to make a big dent in the overall amount of slack in the U.S. economy. While it is true that growth was stronger in the fourth quarter, most of that growth was due to inventory accumulation. Growth of final sales was actually quite weak. Historically, a quarter in which inventory investment makes a significant growth contribution is typically followed by a quarter in which that growth contribution is modest or even negative. That appears to be what is shaping up for the first quarter of this year.

Para él, por cierto, la tasa de crecimiento potencial de EE UU es 2.25%:

To put the recent pace of growth into perspective, we believe that the economy’s long-run sustainable growth rate (what economists call the potential growth rate) is around a 2 1/4 percent annual rate. We need sustained growth above that rate to absorb the substantial amount of unused productive capacity. Thus, our recent growth rates are barely keeping up with our potential.