Evans apoya públicamente política de metas de PIB nominal

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Charles Evans, presidente de la Fed de Chicago y miembro no votante del FOMC, es el único miembro que ha apoyado una política monetaria con objetivo de nivel de PIB nominal (NGDP level targeting).

Matthew O’Brien en The Atlantic discute esta posición “herética” y las ventajas de este tipo de objetivo en circunstancias como las actuales:

While most of his colleagues at the Fed have recently taken an even more hawkish turn, Evans remains a champion of additional monetary stimulus. And on Tuesday he took an even bigger step: He became the first sitting Fed member to endorse nominal GDP (NGDP) level targeting.

The debate over NGDP level targeting and inflation targeting is part of a larger war that’s been going on the past few years in the normally staid world of central banking. It’s a three-sided debate over what the Fed should do now. There are those who think the Fed’s dual mandate goes too far in promoting full employment, those who think it’s just about right, and those who think it doesn’t go far enough.

Why is steadily rising NGDP so important? It’s about debt. Most contracts assume that NGDP will rise about five-percent a year. If NGDP (and incomes) doesn’t go up that quickly, it becomes harder and harder for people to pay back their debts. That’s what made the Great Recession so great. NGDP growth actually went negative for the first time in half a century.

But central banks don’t usually speak the language of NGDP. They speak the language of inflation. It’s not because inflation is a better signpost for policymakers than is NGDP. It’s not. None other than Ben Bernanke said so in 2003, when he argued that both NGDP and inflation are the best indicators for central bankers. It’s more that people are more familiar with inflation. Besides, NGDP and inflation almost always give central bankers the same policy signal. Except for times like now.

The Fed is still a long way off, if ever, from adopting an NGDP level target. But Evans’ endorsement of the idea is a big first step in what could be a hugely important paradigm shift. Even if there isn’t a large difference between the quasi-NGDP level target that is the Evans Rule and an actual NGDP level target, it’s a fairly radical new way of framing policy. Rather than the central bank letting the economy recover faster, it puts the onus for a faster recovery on the central bank.

Estamos de acuerdo que la Fed no llevará a cabo relajamiento monetario pronto.

Para una introducción a las metas de PIB nominal, lea estas entradas anteriores:

• Recordando: El rol de los bancos centrales bajo trampas de liquidez
• Want to follow the debate on NGDP targeting? Start here.

Y para mayor detalle:

• Interfluidity: una propuesta de estabilización Zhang sobre NGDP targeting
• Luis H. Arroyo: Sutilezas de la política monetaria
• Expansión en PIB nominal se ralentiza en EE UU: David Glasser
• Beckworth: NGDP level targets better than growth rate targets