Cómo Grecia dejaría la zona del euro (The Guardian)

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Todos los escenarios de TransEconomics todavía suponen (aunque con menos fe que antes) que Grecia no se saldrá de la unión monetaria durante el horizonte de proyección: 2012–2013. Eso no significa, sin embargo, que no estemos leyendo y pensando seriamente sobre las consecuencias de un posible Grexit. A continuación presentamos pasajes de Julia Kollewe en The Guardian, quien describe cinco etapas de una salida de Grecia. La primera etapa, parálisis electoral, ya ocurrió.

1. Parálisis electoral:

The political deadlock has triggered repeated warnings from European leaders that Greece could be thrown out of the euro if it does not stick to the spending cuts and economic reforms stipulated for the bailout – the only thing that that keeps Athens from a messy bankruptcy, which would mean a halt to paying government workers and pensioners.

2. Se acaba el dinero:

… Or what if a government is formed that does not adhere to the strict bailout conditions?

The “troika” – the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank – would probably turn off the taps and bailout money would stop flowing to the highly indebted country. At the same time, Greek banks would probably be cut off from the liquidity provided by the ECB.

…Christian Schultz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank, says last week’s €4.2bn payment could be the last injection of bailout money and a run on its banks would become likely.

“If Greece continues to redeem bonds, and pay interest, it could run out of cash by July,” he says. “After that, the government would be unable to make full euro payments to pensioners and public employees. It may instead make these payments in promissory notes, which could form the nucleus of a new currency. Greece would face financial infarction: the country’s banks would face a bank run.”

3. Nueva moneda, nuevos bancos:

To counteract a run on its banks after a debt default, a new Greek government would have to freeze bank accounts and introduce capital controls to prevent the country’s citizens from moving money abroad.

… The government would also have to pass a currency law and start up the banknote-printing machines… To minimise the likely chaos that would ensue, the Greek government would probably choose to reintroduce the drachma over a weekend.

Because the Greek banks are entirely reliant on the ECB for liquidity, they would become insolvent as soon as the money stopped flowing. The Greek government would have no choice but to create new banks, with substantial government involvement. Iceland was forced to do this during the financial crisis: it created three new banks from the ruins of the old bankrupt lenders.

4. Salida en masa de griegos hacia las fronteras:

The Argentinian example shows that a Greek debt default and exit from the eurozone are likely to have dire economic and social consequences, at least in the short term.

…In Argentina’s case, the largest ever sovereign bankruptcy – defaulting on $93bn of foreign debt – triggered a 60% fall in domestic consumption as household savings were wiped out and inflation rose.

The depreciation of the new currency will make imported goods more expensive and drive up inflation. Mass unemployment is likely, as is an exodus of young skilled workers. If tens of thousands of Greeks headed to the borders, they might even be closed.

5. La onda de choque se expande:

Holders of Greek government debt would undoubtedly suffer, as they risk having their assets redenominated into a rapidly falling new Greek currency – as would holders of Greek corporate debt… Then, of course, there is the cost of bolstering the other vulnerable nations – such as Portugal and Spain – which the Institute of International Finance has recently estimated could run to €1 trillion. This burden would fall on the taxpayers of the remaining 16 eurozone states.

Once the precedent of a country leaving the eurozone is established, stability and confidence in the rest of the currency bloc would be shot to pieces and in all likelihood send it back into recession. “We have long held the view that, following the departure of just one member, a total breakup would be very much on the cards,” says Fathom Consulting.