BdJ podría intervenir para debilitar yen en próximos 2-4 meses

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El Banco de Japón dejó sin cambio la tasa de interés en 0.00-0.10% y no expandió más el tamaño de su balance (comunicado), probablemente porque considera que su economía se reacelera (a pesar de los riesgos externos). Anticipamos que en los próximos 2-4 meses BdJ intervendrá más para debilitar el yen, pero no necesariamente a través del relajamiento cuantitativo.

Los mercados están volátiles. La aversión al riesgo es elevada y promete subir más. Estas condiciones refuerzan al yen. Anticipamos que en los próximos 2-4 meses BdJ intervendrá más para debilitar la moneda.

El comunicado sugiere que no será mediante más relajamiento cuantitativo en el corto plazo. Pero RC no es la única forma de inducir depreciación del yen. El Banco puede y suele intervenir directamente en el mercado cambiario, independientemente de su postura monetaria. Para nosotros el tipo de cambio umbral es $1.00 = 76 yen: cualquier amenaza de cruzarlo probablemente detonará medidas por parte del Banco.

Algunos pasajes del comunicado:

It has become increasingly evident that Japan’s economy is shifting toward a pick-up phase, although its economic activity has remained more or less flat. Exports have so far remained more or less flat. As for domestic demand, public investment has been increasing. Business fixed investment has been on a moderate increasing trend with some improvement in business sentiment. Against the background of improvement in consumer sentiment, private consumption has been increasing moderately due to the effects of measures to stimulate demand for automobiles. Housing investment has generally been picking up. Production has shown some signs of picking up reflecting these developments in demand at home and abroad, although it has remained more or less flat. Meanwhile, financial conditions in Japan have continued to ease. On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is around 0 percent.

As for the outlook, Japan’s economy is expected to return to a moderate recovery path as the pace of recovery in overseas economies picks up, led by emerging and commodity-exporting economies, and as reconstruction-related demand after the earthquake disaster gradually strengthens. The year-on-year rate of change in the CPI is expected to remain at around 0 percent for the time being.

[…] The Bank recognizes that Japan’s economy faces the critical challenge of overcoming deflation and returning to a sustainable growth path with price stability. This challenge will be met through efforts to strengthen the economy’s growth potential and support from the financial side. The Bank continues to conduct policy in an appropriate manner.