Por préstamos y depósitos débiles, BCE puede recortar antes de agosto 2012

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En nuestro escenario central, el BCE recorta su tasa de política monetaria en 25 puntos base a 0.75% en agosto 2012. Sin embargo, en vista del reporte de agregados monetarios de abril, que muestra debilidad en préstamos bancarios y caídas en los depósitos, vemos nuestro pronóstico en riesgo: posiblemente BCE recorte tasas antes de agosto (FT, Barclays).

Financial Times:

The eurozone’s economic fragility has been highlighted by the weakest growth in bank lending to the private sector in almost two years, while an unusually-sharp drop in overnight deposits added to worries of fresh banking sector stresses ahead.

In spite of exceptional steps taken by the European Central Bank to boost the supply of credit, lending to the private sector grew at an annual rate of just 0.3 per cent in April – the slowest since May 2010.

The ECB will also have been disappointed by slower growth in M3, the broad money supply measure, which is used as an indicator of economic activity as well as possible inflation pressures. M3, which had shown signs of re-accelerating this year, grew at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent in April, down from 3.1 per cent in March and the slowest since January.

Barclays:

Today’s euro area MFI release showed unexpected weakness in M3, which fell by EUR51bn (SA), taking the y/y to 2.5%, having been 3.1% previously. The weakness was due to a EUR57bn drop in overnight deposits, though on closer inspection this was mainly because of a EUR50bn drop in overnight deposits by the “other financial institutions” sector. (Drilling down further, we find that in NSA terms, this sector’s overnight deposits fell by a milder EUR15bn, and was mainly due to its deposits with French MFIs; as well, the sector’s loans also fell by EUR30bn in SA terms and by EUR16.6bn in NSA terms, suggesting that there were some shifts in this often volatile sector, which includes securitisation vehicles, leasing firms, hedge funds, etc.).

Focusing on the household side, overall deposits grew by EUR10bn (SA) in April, having been virtually flat in the prior two months, and so taking the y/y back to slightly positive (0.1%). However, deposits of non-financial corporations (NFCs) fell a sharp EUR12bn, taking the y/y rate more negative still, to -0.8% from -0.2%.

Meanwhile, on the lending side, household loans after adjustment for sales and securitisations grew by EUR6bn (SA) in April, the same as in March, but up only 0.5% y/y, weaker than 0.6% in March. Meanwhile, loans to NFCs, after adjustment, grew by EUR10bn (SA) in April, 0.5% y/y, and so slightly better than in March (when they fell by EUR8bn and rose in y/y terms only 0.3%).

Overall loans to the private sector, after adjustment, fell by EUR20bn SA in April, taking the annual rate down to just 0.8% from 1.2% previously, but as noted above this was due to the “OFI” sector.

[…], household deposit flows appear to have been relatively steady in April for most countries’ households and NFCs, though with some weakness in Spanish household and Italian NFC flows in April based on our SA analysis

Fuente: Barclays Euro Area Instant Insights 30 mayo 2012: Euro area April MFI release shows weakness in deposits and lending, but mainly attributable to the “other financial institution” sector.