BCE actuó, pero su estrategia no ha cambiado
Patrick Signoret
El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) redujo su tasa de política monetaria en 25 puntos base a 0.75%, lo cual había sido ampliamente anticipado. Además redujo la tasa de interés aplicable a la facilidad de depósito en 25 puntos base a 0.00%. Fue una decisión unánime.
Leímos con detalle el comunicado introductorio a la conferencia de prensa de Mario Draghi y encontramos que, como esperábamos, no hay ningún cambio significativo en su lenguaje que señale un cambio de estrategia en la política monetaria del BCE.
El comunicado es pesimista:
Inflationary pressure over the policy-relevant horizon has been dampened further as some of the previously identified downside risks to the euro area growth outlook have materialised. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, economic growth in the euro area continues to remain weak, with heightened uncertainty weighing on confidence and sentiment.
Draghi sigue insistiendo que todas las medidas del banco central han tenido el objetivo único de apoyar la transmisión de política monetaria (para así lograr el objetivo de inflación de 2%):
We have implemented both standard and non-standard monetary policy measures. This combination of measures has supported the transmission of our monetary policy. All our non-standard monetary policy measures are temporary in nature and we maintain our full capacity to ensure medium-term price stability by acting in a firm and timely manner. Let me also remind you of the decision taken by the Governing Council on 22 June 2012 concerning further measures to increase collateral availability for counterparties.
Declara que los riesgos para la inflación están balanceados:
Taking into account today’s decisions, risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area. Upside risks pertain to further increases in indirect taxes, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation, and higher than expected energy prices over the medium term.
En la sesión de preguntas y respuestas, negó que el haya coordinado las acciones de estímulo monetario con los bancos centrales de Reino Unido o de China.
Negó estar preocupado por la deflación:
Deflation is a protracted and generalised drop in the price level, so protracted and so strong and so generalised that it could disanchor inflationary expectations. It has to be generalised across countries and across products and sectors. And we see no sign of this in any country. But something to keep in mind for the future is that we always have to be careful in distinguishing movements in the price level and the inflation rate from movements in relative price adjustments. We can see some prices falling, but that is actually part of a good rebalancing of the situation within the euro area.
Draghi también respondió a dos preguntas interesantes sobre el fondo permanente de rescate, MEDE (ESM por sus siglas en inglés):
Question: I would like to go back to the question on the ESM. You mentioned before that you welcomed the fact that it was more flexible and efficient: do you think it is big enough for the tasks that it is being asked to do, from recapitalising banks to buying bonds in the secondary market?
And in relation to this, there has been an idea out there for a couple of years that the ECB could maybe play a role in increasing the firepower of the ESM, by giving it a bank licence, for example. Would you be open to this or would you rule it out as one of the legal tricks circumventing the spirit of the Treaty that you have warned about in the past?
Draghi: How big is big enough? We know what we have and so we have to make it do! And frankly, I think that, right now, the ESM and the EFSF with the new modalities are big enough to cope with the contingencies that we can envisage now.
With regard to the ECB, I have said on numerous occasions that we are certainly supporting the euro area economy by achieving our objective of price stability in the medium term, and we want to act within the limits of our mandate. I don’t think there is anything to gain by asking the institution to act outside the limits of its mandate, thereby destroying its credibility.
El lenguaje que utiliza el BCE es el mismo de siempre; su estrategia no ha cambiado. Este banco central no tiene ningún mandato legal para ser prestamista de última instancia, pero sabe que debe serlo. Por lo tanto, toda medida de política monetaria no convencional que lleva a cabo la explica como una manera de mantener el mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria. Un ejemplo de tales medidas son los préstamos de largo plazo a tasas muy bajas para bancos comerciales, conocidos por sus siglas en inglés como LTRO.
Énfasis nuestro:
[…] the mandate is the pursuit of price stability in the medium term with well-anchored inflation expectations. That is the mandate and we will use any tool within that mandate.
Vea el el video de la conferencia de prensa aquí.