Bancos centrales de Brasil y Corea recortan; Japón no extiende compras de activos

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El Banco Central de Brasil redujo su tasa de política monetaria en 50 puntos base a 8.00%, como se esperaba, y se espera que recorte nuevamente en agosto. El Banco de Corea sorprendió al reducir su tasa en 25 puntos base, a 3.00% (Bloomberg). El Banco de Japón dejó sin cambio su tasa de política monetaria (0.00-0.10%) y el tamaño de su programa de compra de activos, pero cambió la composición de los activos que va a comprar (BdJ, WSJ).

(Todo el detalle después de la gráfica.)

Comunicado del Banco Central de Brasil:

The Copom considers that, at this moment, the risks for the inflation path remain limited. The Committee also notes that, up to now, given the fragility of the global economy, the contribution of the external sector has been disinflationary.

Therefore, continuing the adjustment process of monetary conditions, the Copom decided to reduce the Selic rate to 8.00 percent p.a., without bias.

Barclays espera al menos un recorte más:

By keeping the same statement from the previous meeting, the board is giving the message that it wants to keep all options open, especially at a time when global jitters seem to be deteriorating. We expect markets to price another 50bp in the next meeting and a higher probability that the Selic rate will be cut again in the following meeting. We have a final 50bp rate cut in August, bringing the Selic rate down to 7.5%. However, if local and global growth conditions continue to surprise to the downside, the risk is that the Copom will deliver more easing in the short term and keep rates lower for longer. Now all eyes will be on the minutes next Thursday (19 July) to get more color on how the BCB views the next steps of monetary policy.

Fuente: Guilherme Loureiro y Bruno Rovai, “Brazil Copom: Letting the door open to continue cutting rates”, Brazil Instant Insights 12 julio 2012.

Del comunicado del Banco de Corea:

Based on currently available information, the Committee considers some economic indicators in the US to have shown signs of deteriorating, and the sluggishness of economic activities in the euro area to have deepened. Growth in emerging market countries as well has continued to slow, mostly on sluggish exports. Going forward the Committee expects the pace of global economic recovery to be more moderate than originally forecast, and judges the downside risks to growth to be intensifying further, due chiefly to the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the euro area fiscal crisis and to the possibilities of international financial market unrest and economic slumps in major countries.

Bloomberg provee más detalle sobre la decisión: reporta que fue una sorpresa:

Governor Kim Choong Soo’s officials lowered the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 percent, the first cut since February 2009.

[…] “We can’t sit by idly with deteriorating external conditions cutting our economic growth,” Bank of Korea Governor Kim told reporters in Seoul today, adding that the cut should help boost growth while having a limited effect on inflation. “We moved in a preemptive manner as the monetary policy authority because our GDP gap is turning negative, meaning actual growth is trailing potential.”

La tasa de política monetaria de Japón ya está prácticamente en cero, por lo que el estímulo del banco central ha consistido en un programa de relajamiento cuantitativo: compras de bonos del gobierno y otros activos financieros. El mercado (y nosotros) esperaba que se anunciara una ampliación del programa en 5-10 billones de yenes, pero el BdJ no lo hizo en su comunicado. En vez de eso, en otro comunicado anunció un cambio en la composición de los activos que va a comprar. WSJ ofrece más detalle:

The BOJ opted to keep its asset-purchase program at ¥70 trillion yen ($879.2 billion), but to shift ¥5 trillion from an underutilized fund offering fixed-rate loans and use it to more than double its purchases of the treasury bills. Traders and analysts said though it fell short of a straightforward expansion of the BOJ program, the shift would help get more money into the market.

[…] BOJ Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said the change was meant to ensure the BOJ meets its targets for asset purchases this year.

“The BOJ is buying more assets every month, as it tries to expand the asset-purchase program to ¥65 trillion by the end of this year and to ¥70 trillion by the end of June,” he said at a news conference after the meeting. “Thursday’s decision was to continue the efforts as scheduled.” Having flooded the market with cash in its fight against deflation, the BOJ has been having trouble meeting its targets for loan provision and bond purchases at its recent operations.

[…] The BOJ also said it expects inflation to stay below its 1% goal in the fiscal year starting next April, suggesting the central bank foresees having to stick to its accommodative monetary policy stance at least through early 2014.

The central bank’s policy board held to its previous forecast for inflation next fiscal year, saying it expects the country’s core consumer price index to rise 0.7%. For the current fiscal year, ending March 2013, the central bank expects core CPI to rise 0.2%. Its previous forecast was 0.3%.

The BOJ also maintained its assessment of the Japanese economy, saying it has started picking up moderately on the back of solid domestic demand. It forecasts overall gross domestic product growth of 2.2% for the current fiscal year and 1.7% for the next.

Estaremos observando en la siguiente reunión:

The nine-member policy board meets again Aug. 8 and 9. Analysts noted that two new members will fill current vacancies—and that both have spoken of the need for additional easing.