Solicitudes de compensación por desempleo caen, confirmando nuestro escenario central

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

(Bajo nuestro escenario central, EE UU no entra en recesión en 2012-2013)

Las nuevas solicitudes de compensación por desempleo de EE UU cayeron por tercera semana consecutiva (–26K a 350K). El promedio móvil de cuatro semanas –nuestra medida preferida por ser menos volátil– cayó por segunda semana consecutiva (–10K a 377K), tras cinco semanas de alzas. (DOL). Bloomberg advierte que podría ser una distorsión temporal:

Fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week, reflecting the volatility of applications during the annual auto-plant retooling period.

Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 26,000 in the week ended July 7 to 350,000, the fewest since March 2008, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 372,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Last week’s distortion is likely to unwind slowly over coming weeks, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data was released to the press.

Automakers including Chrysler Group LLC, Ford Motor Co. (F) and Nissan Motor Co. are keeping more plants than normal open during this time of year to fulfill demand and replenish inventories. For that reason, it may take time to determine if the labor market is making any progress.