¿Qué hará la Fed hoy?
Patrick Signoret
Ni nosotros ni la mayoría de los analistas anticipamos que la Fed anuncie QE3 hoy, pero el banco central podría llevar a cabo otras medidas. La Fed publica su comunicado hoy a la 1:15 PM hora Cd. de México. A continuación algunos artículos y análisis que hemos estado leyendo.
JP Morgan “Global Data Watch” 27 julio:
At next week’s FOMC meeting we expect the Fed will push back the exceptionally low rate guidance from late 2014 to mid-2015. Given the deterioration in the outlook it is a close call as to whether it takes even more aggressive action, specifically more large-scale asset purchases. While the case for taking immediate action is strong, we expect the Committee will hold off for now, preferring to observe whether the current slowdown is enduring. The trip-wire for QE in September action will be the next two labor market reports. Chairman Bernanke and others on the Committee have indicated that the type of jobs reports we’ve seen in the last three months is unacceptable from the perspective of their full-employment mandate. We expect next Friday’s July jobs report will not look much better than the few that immediately preceded it. If the August report looks equally sluggish, a new round of QE of up to $500 billion of Treasury and mortgage purchases will be announced on September 13.
Barclays “Global Economics Weekly” 27 julio:
We expect the Fed to refrain from taking further action at the August FOMC meeting next week. Instead, we see the September meeting, which comes after two more employment reports and will include a press conference and a new set of FOMC projections, as a more likely near-term decision point. We doubt that the Fed saw anything in the recent data flow that would alter its view that growth is likely to be moderate, that progress on unemployment will be “frustratingly slow”, and that risks to growth lie to the downside.
[…] One factor behind our view that the Fed will remain on hold is the state of financial market conditions, which have not worsened to the same degree they did prior to previous Fed purchase programs.
La mayoría de los analistas encuestados por Bloomberg no esperan que la Fed anuncie QE3 hoy.
El lunes, Bloomberg reportó que la Fed estaba considerando reducir la tasa de interés para reservas bancarias, pero el artículo no contiene fuentes de alto nivel ni ofrece argumentos fuertes. Simplemente menciona la posibilidad, dado que el BCE lo hizo hace un mes.
Actualización: La inflación PCE estable es otra razón por la que creemos que hoy no se anunciará QE3.