Barclays ve recuperación en vivienda de EE UU

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Aunque la construcción de nuevas viviendas cayó en julio (Census), Barclays argumenta que el alza en los permisos de construcción apunta a una recuperación generalizada en el sector, (suscripción requerida).

Michael Gapen de Barclays (“US housing start and permit activity point to broader housing recovery”, 16 ago 2012):

Housing starts fell to 746k in July from a downwardly revised 754k in June (previous: 760k), broadly in line with our forecast and consensus expectations which were looking for a modest decline.

[…] Looking through some of the month-to-month volatility, underlying trends remain consistent with a broadening of the recovery in US housing. Multi-family starts have been in an upward trend for more than two years and the 3mma of 218k stands 31% above year-ago levels. Single family starts have recently complemented the move in multi-family starts, albeit on a more gradual basis. The 3mma in single family starts of 517k is modestly above the 487k seen in Q1 12 and 21% above year-ago levels. Permit activity suggests that the broad-based increase in start activity is likely to continue. Housing permits rose 6.8% on the month to 812k, well above the 698k in Q4 and 720k in Q1. We continue to see the US housing market as engaged in a gradual recovery and incoming data are supportive of our thesis that a narrow recovery in housing from rising multi-family starts is beginning to be complemented with better single family start activity and firmer pricing.