Barclays: 30% probabilidad de que Banco de Corea recorte tasa monetaria en diciembre

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En una nota sobre la producción industrial de Corea, Barclays menciona ($) que es posible (mas no probable) un recorte de la tasa de política monetaria (actualmente 2.75%) en diciembre:

While we maintain our base case view of no rate cut, we think there is an outside chance (say 30%) of a rate cut in the next three months. The tipping point, in our view, would be indicators of domestic investment, such as corporate announcements (project deferrals, recruitment cuts), as well as signs of weakness in construction and real estate. And if this slippage were larger than expected, it would widen the negative output gap, paving the way for a rate cut – as early as the December MPC meeting, which is 10 days before the 19 December presidential election.

(Barclays, Korea Instant Insights: “Korea: Stronger vehicle and vessel output in September but mild payback in electronics”, 31 octubre 2012.)

 Genevieve Signoret resume:

Barclays: 30% chance of a rate cut in Korea on Dec 10, 9 days before election. ¿Trigger? Weakness in investment, real estate, construction.

— Genevieve Signoret (@gsignoret) November 1, 2012

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