Bancos centrales de Japón y Turquía dejan tasas principales sin cambio

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Los bancos centrales de Turquía y Japón dejaron sus tasas principales sin cambio; el de Japón además dejó sin cambio el tamaño de su programa de compra de activos. El banco central de Turquía (CBRT) utiliza cuatro tasas de política monetaria. Dejó dos sin cambio, incluyendo la principal, pero redujo las otras dos. Jonathan Wheatley en beyondbrics (de FT) cita las reacciones de diferentes analistas y se pregunta si las medidas llevadas a cabo por el CBRT son por cautela o por nerviosismo. Barclays compara el comunicado actual con el anterior ($).

Del comunicado del CBRT:

a) One-week repo rate (the policy rate) has been kept at 5.75 percent.

b) Overnight Interest Rates: Borrowing rate has been kept at 5 percent while lending rate has been cut from 9.5 percent to 9 percent. Interest rate on borrowing facilities provided for primary dealers via repo transactions has been cut from 9 percent to 8.5 percent.

c) Late Liquidity Window Interest Rates (between 4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.): Borrowing rate has been kept at 0 percent while lending rate has been cut from 12.5 percent to 12 percent.

Recent data confirm that the rebalancing between the domestic and external demand continues as envisaged. Domestic demand follows a moderate pace, while exports continue to increase despite the weakening global outlook. Overall, aggregate demand conditions support disinflation and current account deficit continues to decline gradually.

The Committee expects that year-end inflation will be lower than the forecast presented at the October Inflation Report, owing to the favorable course of unprocessed food prices. However, indirect effects of recent increases in administered and energy prices are closely monitored in terms of medium term inflation outlook.

Although recent developments have improved the risk appetite towards Turkish economy, ongoing uncertainties regarding the global economy necessitate the monetary policy to remain flexible in both directions. Therefore, the impact of the measures undertaken on credit, domestic demand, and inflation expectations will be monitored closely and the funding amount will be adjusted in either direction, as needed.

The Committee has stated that increasing the reserve option coefficients and narrowing the interest rate corridor by a measured amount would support financial stability. If deemed necessary for financial stability, a measured cut may be considered in the policy rate and the overnight borrowing rate in the forthcoming period.