¿Recortará tasas Banxico? ¿Cuándo?
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
El consenso espera un recorte de 50 puntos base por parte de Banxico a más tardar en junio de este año. Barclays ($) y varios otros bancos espera el recorte en junio; otros lo esperan desde el próximo viernes 8 de marzo que se reúne la Junta de Gobierno. Sin embargo, al menos un miembro de la Junta de Gobierno, Manuel Sánchez, no parece estar listo para recortar (Bloomberg hoy, nosotros la semana pasada).
Sanchez said in an interview at Bloomberg’s offices in Mexico City that while he doesn’t know how he’ll vote at next week’s policy meeting, he also doesn’t “see a case for a rate cut” at this time. Interbank futures contracts have been showing traders are betting Banco de Mexico will cut the 4.5 percent rate for the first time in more than three years next week. Sanchez is one of five members on the bank’s board.
[…] Sanchez said today that he’s concerned that inflation expectations have remained above the bank’s 3 percent target.
Marco Oviedo de Barclays (“Monitoring inflation trends; a narrow timing window for a potential rate cut”, 26 febrero 2013, requiere suscripción):
As we mentioned in “Mexico inflation report: changing our monetary policy outlook”, February 13, 2013, we are expecting that Banxico will cut rates by 50bp at the June 6 meeting. The expectation is based on the view that core inflation will remain stable, at about 3% amid relative weak growth, and that headline inflation will spike temporarily in March and April. Inflation should then start to decline and it should be back to “close to 3%” figures by June. At that time, Banxico could confirm its expected path and then, implement a rate cut. Triggering an earlier action seems riskier as annual inflation is expected to increase due to base and seasonal effects, in addition to the uncertainty about the effects of the recent the bird flu outbreaks that have been identified in certain farms of the country. Finally, annual inflation already picked up in the first two weeks of February to 3.7% from 3.2% in the first half of January. On the other hand, if Banxico waits longer, the risk that inflation turns back up again is higher, especially is growth gets better.