Diez bancos centrales siguen en pausa o están recortando

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

La semana pasada, el Banco de Corea dejó sin cambio su tasa de política monetaria en 2.75%. Su perspectiva pesimista deja abierta la posibilidad de un recorte futuro. El martes, el Banco de la Reserva de India decidió recortar su tasa de política monetaria en 25 puntos base a 7.50%.

El Banco de Corea no ve riesgos externos ni internos para la inflación:

Based on currently available information, the Committee considers the moderate economic recovery in the US to have been sustained but economic activities in the euro area to have been unable to shake off their sluggishness, while emerging market countries have shown continuing economic growth. The Committee expects the global economy to sustain its modest recovery going forward, but judges that the uncertainties related for instance to the fiscal crisis in the euro area and to fiscal consolidation in the US have not lifted and remain as downside risks to growth.

[…] Going forward, there is no change to the Committee’s forecast that the domestic economy will show a negative output gap  for a considerable time, due mostly to the slow recovery of the global economy in consequence chiefly of the sluggishness of economic activities in the euro area.

Consumer price inflation and core inflation excluding the prices of agricultural and petroleum products continued to run at low levels similar to those in the previous month, at 1.4% and 1.3% respectively in February. Inflation appears likely to remain relatively low, due to the weakening of demand-side pressures; the Committee forecasts, however, that it will rise above its current level as downward pressures from institutional factors partially disappear.

Aunque la tasa de inflación de India ha tendido a la baja desde septiembre del año pasado, subió en febrero a 6.8% desde 6.6%. El alza se explica en gran parte por la rápida inflación en alimentos (11.4%) y energéticos (10.5%), que juntos tienen casi un tercio de ponderación en el índice total de precios al por mayor. Esto dificulta la labor del banco central, como se explica en el comunicado de hoy:

Since the Reserve Bank’s Third Quarter Review (TQR) of January 2013, global financial market conditions have improved, but global economic activity has weakened. On the domestic front too, growth has decelerated significantly, even as inflation remains at a level which is not conducive for sustained economic growth. Although there has been notable softening of non-food manufactured products inflation, food inflation remains high, driving a wedge between wholesale price and consumer price inflation, and is exacerbating the challenge for monetary management in anchoring inflationary expectations.