Creemos que mayoría en BdJ es favorable a política monetaria más agresiva

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Con base en nuestra lectura de las decisiones y minutas del Banco de Japón y de noticias y análisis al respecto, creemos que habrá una mayoría en el comité de política monetaria favorable a algún tipo de estímulo monetario más agresivo. Sin embargo, no todas las señales que han enviado los cinco miembros que han señalado una postura relativamente dovish han sido las mismas: unos se han mostrado favorables a adelantar el relajamiento cuantitativo sin límite determinado, otros a cambiar la orientación a futuro y otros a comprar más y diferentes tipos de activos.

FT cita a analistas y ex-funcionarios del BdJ advirtiendo que lograr un consenso no será tarea fácil para Kuroda. Barclays ($) cree que hay suficiente consenso para anunciar un aumento en el tamaño del programa de compras de bonos soberanos japoneses y en la madurez de los bonos en la reunión del 3-4 abril –la primera dirigida por Kuroda (si es ratificado por el senado este viernes). Más medidas de estímulo monetario vendrían a partir de la reunión del 26 de abril.

Barclays Instant Insights ($) (BoJ Governor nominee Kuroda stresses larger-scale, longer-term JGB purchases, frontloading of open-ended buying; hints at buying risk assets/derivatives, scrapping banknote rule; downplays urgency of IOER cut, foreign bond purchases, 11 marzo 2013):

We continue to believe the first two measures below might be taken at the 3-4 April MPM, the first one “scheduled” under the new leadership, while the latter three measures may have to wait until the next MPM on 26 April or later in order to win majority support among the nine Policy Board members and/or to resolve potential coordination issues with the government […]

For now, we continue to see the following possible actions, in order of likelihood:

1. An extension in the residual maturity of JGBs purchased under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) to 1-10y from the current 1-3y and a hike in the end-2013 APP target for JGBs to JPY60trn from JPY44trn (this could involve putting the JGB operations of the APP under the current rinban operations and increasing the size of the latter);

2. An increase in the amount of open-ended JGB purchases (unnecessary if absorbed under rinban operations, as mentioned above) and a possible frontloading of the operations from the currently scheduled 2014 start;

3. A JPY10-20trn hike in the APP target for risk assets, especially corporate bonds (this measure could take time to materialize as the BoJ may require government indemnification of losses, as in the case of the BoE);

4. A cut in the interest on excess reserves (IOER) to 0.05% from the current 0.1%; and

5. The introduction of forward guidance – ie, a commitment to keep accommodative policies intact until some economic indicator (probably the CPI) reaches a specified level (eg, 2% y/y) on a stable basis.