Todavía no hay plan de rescate chipriota

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El viernes, el parlamento chipriota votó sobre un plan alternativo para recaudar 5.8 MMn de euros, condición que exige la troika a cambio de un préstamo de rescate de 10 MMn de euros. El plan ahora protegería las cuentas de depósito de menos de 100,000 euros, pero impondría pérdidas de hasta 25% en los ahorros por arriba de este nivel y restringiría el flujo de capitales de la isla. Pero la troika no está convencida; los ministros de finanzas de la zona del euro se reunirán el domingo para decidir sobre la propuesta.

Mientras tanto, los bancos chipriotas continúan cerrados. El Banco Central Europeo advirtió que, si no hay un acuerdo este lunes, dejará de proveer liquidez de emergencia. Chipre tendría que abandonar el euro. (NYT, FT).

Nuestra perspectiva, que se basa en lo que ha pasado en los últimos años, es que Chipre y la troika al final llegarán a un acuerdo y evitarán que Chipre abandone la eurozona.

NYT:

Lawmakers took steps late Friday to revise a formula for obtaining a bailout of Cyprus’s banks but faced strong signals that the plan would not pass muster with international lenders.

The Parliament put off until later this weekend a vote on a crucial new proposal that would confiscate 22 to 25 percent of uninsured deposits above 100,000 euros through a new tax on account holders in one of the nation’s most troubled banks.

So with a deadline imposed by the European Central Bank looming on Monday, it appeared there was still no immediate path to a lifeline of 10 billion euros, or $13 billion, that Cyprus needs to keep its banks from collapsing.

[…] Monday is a national holiday in Cyprus, but banks are supposed to reopen on Tuesday for the first time in more than a week. There is widespread fear of a classic bank run.

[…] One of the provisions Parliament approved Friday would impose new restrictions on withdrawing cash or moving money out of the country when the banks reopen. These new capital controls would prohibit or restrict check-cashing and bar “premature” account closings or any other transaction the authorities deemed unwarranted.

[…] By effectively shutting down one of the banks needing support, the government could lower the 5.8-billion-euro sum that international lenders are demanding in exchange for a bailout. The consolidation of Laiki, also known as Cyprus Popular Bank, effectively relieves the government of a large expense of supporting the banking system, which is on the verge of collapsing under a mountain of souring loans to Greek businesses and individuals.

FT:

The chances of Cyprus finding a way out of an EU-backed plan to seize €5.8bn from Cypriot bank accounts to unlock a €10bn rescue appeared at an end on Friday as bailout lenders rejected another counteroffer from Nicosia and the country’s finance minister returned from Moscow empty-handed.

The Cypriot parliament approved a slate of bills on Friday night aimed at restructuring its ailing financial sector and paving the way for a bailout. The measures included enabling Cyprus to split in two the country’s second-largest bank, Bank Laiki, and establish capital controls to limit financial transactions in times of crisis.

[…] The rejected Cypriot counteroffer would have wound down Laiki in ways advocated by Berlin and the IMF going into last week’s talks. But it would have also relied on other proposals to raise cash that had been rejected by eurozone negotiators early in the week, such as nationalising the state pension fund to raise €2bn.