Fitch Ratings subió calificación de México a BBB+

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Fitch Ratings subió la calificación de México un escalón a BBB+, citando, entre otros factores, la ausencia de desequilibrios macro-financieros, un compromiso más fuerte de lo anticipado de la administración y del congreso con la agenda de reformas estructurales y la estabilización de la producción petrolera (Fitch Ratings, El Economista). La calificación BBB+ de Fitch es equivalente al Baa1 de Moody’s, tres escalones por arriba de la calificación basura y siete por debajo de la calificación máxima (AAA). S&P califica la deuda de México un escalón abajo, en BBB, con perspectiva estable desde marzo.

La calificación de Fitch Ratings se basa en los siguientes factores:

–Mexico’s resilience in a relatively weak external environment including the sluggishness of the U.S., its key trading partner. Notwithstanding the weak performance of the U.S., Mexico’s three-year growth average reached 4.5% in 2012. This resilience has been supported by the prudent macro-policy settings that have underpinned external and domestic balance, including low inflation, gains in labor cost competitiveness, and a recovery in domestic demand and credit growth.

–Mexico’s conservative policymaking has resulted in moderate inflation, reduced inflation volatility, and small external imbalances. Moreover, increased international reserves enhance Mexico’s shock-absorption capacity.

–The new Pena Nieto government has reinvigorated the reform momentum and passed some of the structural reforms that had languished for several years in Mexico. The ‘Pact for Mexico’, a multi-party alliance on a broad agenda has been instrumental in achieving success so far. Successful implementation of reforms already passed and those in the pipeline should boost the country’s medium-term growth prospects by promoting competition and investment growth.

–Prospects for further economic reforms appear to be favorable. Fitch believes that there is sufficient political commitment to make further headway on the pending agenda, such as the fiscal and energy reforms that are slated for discussion in second half 2013 (2H13).

–The stabilization of oil production and reduced drug-related violence has eased Fitch’s previous concerns. Fitch believes the diversification of the oil production base reduces risks of large declines in the future. The escalation in the drug related violence has abated, with the homicide rate showing a perceptible decline in recent months.

–Prudent liability management has resulted in extension of maturity and duration of government debt. Foreign currency debt is below 20% of total federal government debt. Mexico also benefits from excellent market access. However, the growing foreign ownership of government’s domestic debt securities can be a source of vulnerability at times of high international financial volatility. Mexico’s flexible exchange rate regime, higher international reserves buffers and access to the IMF’s Flexible Credit Line mitigate this risk.

–Mexico’s diverse economic structure, a well-capitalized banking system, and a moderate external debt burden are supportive of its ratings.

–Rating constraints include structural weaknesses in public finances, a low level of financial intermediation and the still high incidence of violence that continues to be an impediment to raising Mexico’s potential growth rate.

–A narrow revenue base, significant fiscal dependence on oil income and low fiscal buffers detract from fiscal flexibility. A potential revenue-enhancing fiscal reform could provide the basis for accommodating spending pressures and reducing oil dependence.