Aplazar meta de déficit de 3% no significa menos austeridad en UE

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Raphael Brun-Aguerre y Marco Protopapa de JP Morgan explicaron que otorgar más tiempo a países europeos para reducir su déficit a 3% no significa que en términos absolutos vayan a llevar a cabo menos austeridad fiscal. Sólo significa que el deterioro en la proporción déficit/PIB por crecimiento económico peor a lo anticipado por la Comisión Europea no detonará aún más austeridad, sino que será tolerado.

Raphael Brun-Aguerre y Marco Protopapa de JP Morgan (Global Data Watch 17 mayo 213, pg 19):

The fiscal consolidation achieved in the Euro area last year was large. The structural budget deficit of the region as a whole improved from 3.6% of GDP in 2011 to 2.1% in 2012, according to the European Commission. But this consolidation effort had a negative impact on growth and contributed to the 0.6% oya GDP contraction last year. In this context, a number of governments have submitted their new medium-term budgetary plans to the European Commission, requesting more time to reduce their deficits to 3% of GDP, which is required by the excessive deficit procedure.

The Commission still needs to assess the new stability programs and will publish its recommendations at the end of this month. Since the beginning of the year, the political risks (pressure on incumbent governments and rise of populist movements) as well as the economic risks of front-loaded consolidation in a recessionary environment have become more evident. It thus seems likely that the recent requests to postpone the reduction of the deficits will be agreed upon, possibly complemented with renewed emphasis on structural reforms. However, it is important to recognize that a slower path to a 3% deficit does not mean less fiscal tightening relative to what had been expected. Instead, delaying the fiscal objectives only means that governments will not have to tighten further to compensate for the wider deficit created by the subdued economic outlook.