Reserva del Banco de India en pausa a pesar de desinflación reciente

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

La tasa de inflación de India ha tendido a la baja desde agosto 2012 y cayó a 4.7% en mayo. Además, el banco central observa debilidad macroeconómica tanto externa como doméstica. Pero la depreciación reciente de la rupia, otros riesgos al alza para la inflación y el riesgo de fuertes salidas de capital le preocupan.

Comunicado:

Since the Reserve Bank’s Annual Policy statement in May, global economic activity has slowed and risks remain elevated, most recently on account of uncertainty over policies of systemic central banks. On the domestic front, macroeconomic conditions remain weak, hamstrung by infrastructure bottlenecks, supply constraints, lacklustre domestic demand and subdued investment sentiment. Inflation has moderated as projected. However, upside pressures on the way forward from the pass-through of rupee depreciation, recent increases in administered prices and persisting imbalances, especially relating to food, pose risks of second-round effects. As recent experience has shown, shifts in global market sentiment can trigger sudden stop and reversal of capital from a broad swath of emerging economies, swiftly amplifying risks to the outlook. India is not an exception.

La orientación a futuro fue cautelosa:

The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy stance will be determined by how growth and inflation trajectories and the balance of payments situation evolve in the months ahead. It is only a durable receding of inflation that will open up the space for monetary policy to continue to address risks to growth. While several measures have been taken to contain the current account deficit, we need to be vigilant about the global uncertainty, the rapid shift in risk perceptions and its impact on capital flows. The Reserve Bank stands ready to use all available instruments and measures to respond rapidly and appropriately to any adverse developments.