FOMC confirmó nuestro pronóstico para tasa de la Fed: no subirá antes de 2015

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El FOMC confirmó nuestro pronóstico para la tasa de la Fed: no subirá antes de 2015. En este sentido el comunicado del FOMC, sus proyecciones y las palabras de Bernanke fueron claras.

Esta parte del comunicado no cambió:

In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.

Quince de 19 miembros creen que no será apropiado aumentar la tasa de política monetaria antes del 2015:

Fuente: Reserva Federal.

Y Bernanke dejó claro que el umbral de 6.5% para la tasa de desempleo es un umbral, no un gatillo:

As I have noted frequently, the phrase “at least as long” in the Committee’s interest rate guidance is important, the economic conditions we have set out as preceding any future rate increase are thresholds, not triggers. For example, assuming that inflation is near our objective at that time, as expected, a decline in the unemployment rate to 6 and 1/2 percent would not lead automatically to an increase in the federal funds rate target, but rather would indicate only that it was appropriate for the Committee to consider whether the broader economic outlook justified such an increase.

Más tarde en la conferencia de prensa, Bernanke dijo que, si en algún momento hubiera un cambio en el umbral por debajo del cual el Comité consideraría comenzar a elevar las tasas de interés el cambio sería a la baja y no al alza. Es decir, reducirían el umbral desde su actual 6.5%, aplazando el momento después del cual la Fed comenzaría a elevar la tasa de fondos federales.