Bancos centrales de Reino Unido y eurozona inician orientación a futuro

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Tanto el Banco de Inglaterra (BdI) como el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) dejaron sus tasas de política monetaria sin cambio en 0.50%. El BdI además dejó sin cambio el tamaño de su programa de compras de activos en £375 MMn. Pero ambos introdujeron a sus comunicados elementos de orientación a futuro sobre su postura monetaria. Tras la primera reunión bajo el nuevo gobernador Mark Carney, el Comité de Política Monetaria del BdI advirtió que las alzas recientes en las tasas de interés –las cuales implicaban que el mercado esperaba alzas en la tasa de política monetaria a partir de 2015– no estaban justificadas (FT). Además indicó que podría adoptar orientación a futuro formal, posiblemente con umbrales específicos, a partir de agosto. El Consejo de Gobierno del BCE, por su parte, anticipó que mantendrá sus tasas en niveles actuales o inferiores “durante un tiempo prolongado”.

Los pasajes claves del comunicado del Banco de Inglaterra:

At its meeting today, the Committee noted that the incoming data over the past couple of months had been broadly consistent with the central outlook for output growth and inflation contained in the May Report. The significant upward movement in market interest rates would, however, weigh on that outlook; in the Committee’s view, the implied rise in the expected future path of Bank Rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy.

The latest remit letter to the MPC from the Chancellor had requested that the Committee provide an assessment, alongside its August Inflation Report, of the case for adopting some form of forward guidance, including the possible use of intermediate thresholds. This analysis would have an important bearing on the Committee’s policy discussions in August.

Y el del Banco Central Europeo:

Looking ahead, our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on the overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics. In the period ahead, we will monitor all incoming information on economic and monetary developments and assess any impact on the outlook for price stability.

David Cottle y Brian Blackstone en Money Beat de WSJ resumieron así el día:

The U.S. may have been on holiday Thursday but Europe’s major central banks very obviously weren’t, with both the European Central Bank and Bank of England dipping a toe into the new world of forward guidance.

The BoE went first. New governor Mark Carney has already made changes. In a statement accompanying the widely-expected decision to leave both rates and asset purchases unchanged, the BoE said that rising market rates had shifted expectations for the Bank Rate above levels that were justified by the economic situation.

The fact that there was a statement at all indicated a change in policy. The old BOE just announced its decision and left interpretation to the markets.

This was a clear attempt to talk the markets down and it worked. Sterling fell, as did gilt yields, while stocks rose in expectation of prolonged monetary accommodation.

The ECB didn’t alter policy either but it did take the unprecedented step of saying rates would remain at current record low levels or (crucially) below them “for an extended period.” Cue similar action in euro zone markets.

It seems that forward guidance has just crossed the Atlantic.