Murat Üçer de GlobalSource Partners explica medidas del banco central turco

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Recordarán que el martes 23 de julio el comité de política monetaria elevó la tasa de préstamos overnight en 75 puntos base a 7.25%, dejando sin cambio las otras dos tasas (la tasa semanal de referencia y la que se aplica para pedir prestado en el mercado overnight). Hace dos días citamos en Timón Económico parte de la explicación ($) de Üçer, pero nos pareció tan útil que hoy quisimos compartirles más pasajes.

[…The] Bank took a somewhat controversial step of eliminating, for exceptional days only, the primary dealers’ access to the O/N window at the more favorable, 50 bps lower rate. In other words, in times of lira weakness, the Bank can now drive money market rates as high as to 7.25%, since primary dealers are also forced to borrow at that rate. This means, de facto, a 125 bps hike, but only for exceptional or “additional tightening” days. For normal days, the Bank went the other way, providing a sweetener of sorts by removing the upper limits on the amount of funding that can be supplied in one-week and monthly repo auctions, which means, in effect, providing cheaper liquidity in those days more quickly.

In sum, the Bank can now exercise more discretion within the corridor: when the lira comes under pressure, the Bank can drive rates as high as the lending rate, but in good times, quickly drive rates to the policy rate or even lower, by flushing markets with liquidity.

The Bank also said that it would not conduct F/X sale auctions on exceptional days.

The bottom line is that, with today’s moves, the Bank has revealed that it is prepared to take higher interest rate volatility in order to reduce lira as well as F/X reserve volatility, in dealing with volatile capital flows. (The latter can be seen as an acknowledgement of relative discomfort with the current reserve levels.) Put differently, the Bank has undertaken another “optimization attempt” around the so-called “Impossible Trinity” (or Trilemma), trying to distribute the burden of adjustment more evenly between the interest rate and the F/X market. That being said, whether this will work as planned in the face of large shocks, we very much doubt it.