El mercado de crédito no mejora en la zona del euro

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Cifras mensuales publicadas por el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) la semana pasada mostraron que, en términos interanuales, los préstamos de bancos comerciales a empresas siguen cayendo (-3.2% a/a en junio desde -3.1% en mayo), mientras que los préstamos a hogares están estancados (0.0% desde 0.2%). Además mostraron que la medida más amplia de oferta monetaria, M3, continúa desacelerándose en tendencia, como lo ha hecho desde finales del 2012. Otra publicación del BCE de la semana pasada, la encuesta trimestral sobre préstamos bancarios, tuvo noticias mixtas, pero definitivamente no señaló que el mercado de crédito se está recuperando. Si bien los bancos de la zona del euro reportaron que su propio acceso al financiamiento mejoró en el segundo trimestre, el porcentaje de bancos reportando endurecimiento de sus estándares crediticios para empresas continuó siendo mayor que el porcentaje reportando relajamiento. El endurecimiento neto para préstamos hipotecarios también continuó en el segundo trimestre. Los estándares para el crédito al consumo, en cambio, fueron relajados por primera vez desde finales de 2007. La demanda de crédito continuó cayendo en todas las categorías.

A continuación insertamos algunos pasajes del resumen de la encuesta trimestral del BCE. Continuó el endurecimiento de los estándares crediticios para empresas e hipotecas, mientras que los estándares para el crédito al consumo fueron relajados por primera vez desde finales de 2007:

According to the July 2013 [Bank Lending Survey (BLS)], the net percentage of banks reporting a further tightening of credit standards (henceforth “net tightening”) on loans to non-financial corporations (NFCs) stood at 7%, unchanged from the previous survey round. The level of net tightening stands below the historical average calculated over the period since the start of the survey in 2003. In the case of housing loans, the degree of net tightening declined (to 7%, from 14% in the first quarter of 2013). The percentage is lower than expected by the reporting banks at the time of the previous survey round (10%), standing only slightly below the historical average. For consumer credit, credit standards have fallen for the first time since end-2007 (to a net easing of 2%, from a net tightening of 7%), but remained above the historical average.

La demanda de crédito continuó cayendo en todas las categorías:

Turning to loan demand, developments in the second quarter of 2013 were mixed. On the one hand, the percentage of euro area banks reporting a net decline in the demand for loans to non-financial corporations decreased moderately in the second quarter of 2013 (to -18%, from -24%). On the other hand, this net percentage remains below the historical average, i.e. demand is still weaker than it has been over the sample. The weakness of demand was driven mainly by a substantial negative impact of fixed investment on the financing needs of firms, while inventories and working capital contributed positively to the loan demand in the same quarter. For housing loans, banks indicated a substantially reduced net decline of demand (a drop to -2%, from -26% in the first quarter of 2013), bringing it to below its historical average. In the case of consumer credit, there was also a smaller net decline of demand (-7%, after -25% in the first quarter), which brought it down to close to its historical average. Looking forward to the third quarter of 2013, banks expect the net decline in demand for loans across all loan categories to continue.

El acceso a financiamiento para los propios bancos mejoró:

The July 2013 BLS round included four ad hoc questions. In response to the first, which addressed banks’ access to retail and wholesale funding in the second quarter of 2013, banks reported a further improvement across all funding categories, albeit to a more limited extent than in the previous survey. In the third quarter of 2013, euro area banks expect a marginal deterioration in funding conditions for most market segments, except in the case of retail funding. In answer to the second ad hoc question, which concerned the impact of the sovereign debt crisis on banks’ access to credit, banks indicated that the impact on bank’s funding conditions had continued to abate significantly in the second quarter of 2013.