Próximas fechas importantes para Grecia: sep 2013 y abr 2014

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El FMI ayer autorizó su parte del desembolso pendiente del rescate de Grecia. También lo hizo el comité parlamentario alemán (Bloomberg). Con estas decisiones y las de la semana pasada, el gobierno griego estará fondeado durante unos meses. En septiembre, representantes de la troika regresan a Grecia para evaluar si el gobierno cumplió los requisitos necesarios para el siguiente desembolso (previsto para octubre).

Las discusiones entre autoridades de la zona del euro también comenzarán a concentrarse en cómo reducir la carga de la deuda y cubrir un probable hueco fiscal de Grecia. Estimaciones recientes han encontrado que los €22 MMn en préstamos de rescate que faltan por desembolsar este año y el siguiente (de un paquete total de €237 MMn) no serán suficientes para cubrir todos los requerimientos del gobierno griego, dejando un hueco de €3.8 MMn (WSJ).

La decisión final sobre cómo cubrir este hueco y si perdonar o no parte de la deuda, que ya rebasa 160% del PIB, probablemente será tomada alrededor de abril 2014, cuando se darán a conocer las cifras finales de déficit y deuda de 2013 (Kathimerini).

WSJ:

An EU official said Friday that the bailout faces a shortfall of around €3.8 billion between now and the end of 2014. That gap is due to the refusal of national euro-zone central banks to buy new Greek bonds when the ones they hold mature. When the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund sealed Greece’s latest aid program last year, such a rollover was part of their calculations. But since then, several central banks have refused to follow through, claiming it would amount to financing a national government, which central banks aren’t allowed to do under EU rules.

The official said the €3.8 billion shortfall will have to be closed this fall in order to continue with the bailout program. “It’s not enormous,” he said of the shortfall. “Measures will be found.”

He said that one potential way of closing the gap would be Greece returning to the market and selling short-term bonds.

The official also said a broader discussion on how to reduce Greece’s massive debt load should take place in April 2014, when the 2013 debt level will have been confirmed by the EU’s statistics agency.

Kathimerini:

The German election has become entwined with the fates of indebted states in the 17-member euro area, with Merkel promising voters that Germany won’t write off any of the loans made to Greece since the debt crisis broke out in 2010.

Schaeuble, in a separate interview with the Bild am Sonntag, ruled out another writedown for Greek debt even as he ensured that euro governments will stand by the country.

“Greece will certainly be helped beyond 2014 as much as is needed, as long as the nation fulfills its obligations,” he told the newspaper.

As euro-region governments on July 26 cleared the release of 2.5 billion euros ($3.3 billion) for Greece, a European Union official identified a 3.8 billion-euro gap expected in 2014. Options for plugging that include tapping unused funds earmarked for banks, having Greece venture back into the short-term bond market, or having putting in more money, the official said.

A review mission to Greece by the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund — the so- called troika — will tackle the question in September. An ultimate decision will be put off until April 2014, when the European statistics office certifies whether Greece had a primary surplus in 2013.