Gobierno de coalición italiano en riesgo
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
La Corte Suprema de Italia confirmó la pena de cuatro años de cárcel por evasión fiscal contra Silvio Berlusconi, aunque puso en duda una pena de cinco años durante los cuales no podría ocupar cargos públicos. El ex primer ministro y líder del partido Pueblo de la Libertad (centroderecha), de cuyo apoyo depende el gobierno de coalición dirigido por Enrico Letta (Partido Democrático, centroizquierda), probablemente no tendrá que pisar la cárcel y por el momento, por ser senador, disfruta de inmunidad. Ahora el primer ministro Enrico Letta y el Partido Democrático enfrentan las opciones incómodas de votar a favor de la destitución de Berlusconi de su cargo político, en cuyo caso Berlusconi y su partido prometen hacer caer el gobierno, o mantenerse en el poder gracias al apoyo de un condenado por evasión fiscal (El País, Open Europe).
It took everyone a while to figure out what the Supreme Court final verdict in Silvio Berlusconi’s tax fraud case meant in practice. Let’s start from the easiest part: the four-year prison sentence has been definitively upheld. As we explained here, Berlusconi will only have to serve one year in reality – with house arrest or community service the most likely options, given his age.
The Supreme Court also said the five-year public office ban was excessive under Italian law and had to be cut down – so it referred it back to the Court of Appeal for review. In other words, it seemed Il Cavaliere had at least temporarily dodged the ban – arguably more important than the prison sentence from his point of view.
However, a new twist to the story emerged last night. Under Italy’s new anti-corruption law, which was passed at the end of 2012 by Mario Monti’s technocratic government, Berlusconi will not be allowed to stand for election for at least six years (so not at the next election even if Letta’s government saw through the entire five-year parliamentary term).
But there’s more: Berlusconi also risks losing his seat soon(ish). According to the same law, the Italian Senate will have to vote on whether to expel Berlusconi with immediate effect. This vote will probably take place at some point in September – and will turn into a key test for the stability of Italy’s coalition government.
So, in substance, the lose-lose scenario for Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party that we discussed here is materialising after all:
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If the Democratic Party votes to expel Berlusconi, it will put Italy’s coalition government at risk;
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If the Democratic Party votes to keep Berlusconi in, it will put itself at risk of internal strains and criticism from angry voters. It would also provide a boost to Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment rhetoric.
El sector del Partido Democrático (PD) que apoya la línea oficial representada por el primer ministro Enrico Letta no solo estaba preocupado porque una sentencia adversa provocara el fin del apoyo de Berlusconi al gobierno de coalición, sino sobre todo que los sectores del centroizquierda más críticos con el acuerdo tuvieran el argumento definitivo para hacer saltar la extraña mayoría: ¿se puede permitir el PD liderar un gobierno gracias al apoyo de un condenado en firme por evasión fiscal?