Dos umbrales de 7% para el Banco de Inglaterra

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En su primer discurso como gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, el ex banquero central de Canadá, Mark Carney, discutió los dos umbrales de 7% de la política monetaria y regulatoria del banco central. El primero se refiere a la tasa de desempleo: el Comité de Política Monetaria no pensará en aumentar la tasa de política monetaria hasta que la tasa de desempleo baje al menos hasta 7.0%. (Hoy la tasa de política es de 0.50% y la de desempleo es de 7.8%.) El segundo umbral de 7% se refiere al coeficiente mínimo de capital que deberán alcanzar los ocho bancos más grandes del Reino Unido a finales del año. Carney anunció que el Banco relajará las exigencias de liquidez para los bancos que cumplan con este requerimiento. Más sobre el discurso en Counterparties (Reuters), FT, WSJ, Barclays ($) y elEconomista.es.

Mark Carney explicó las tres razones por las que el Comité no espera que la tasa de desempleo baje rápidamente a 7.0% y, por lo tanto, por las que cree que la expectativa implícita del mercado de que el Banco comenzará a subir su tasa a mediados de 2015 es demasiado optimista:

First, while the outlook for growth has improved considerably in recent months, growth prospects over the next three years are solid not stellar. The MPC’s current forecast is for growth to average around 2½% per year over the next three years, just below its historical average rate of 2¾%. That suggests spare capacity will be used up only gradually.

Second, a great many jobs need to be created to bring unemployment down. A fall in unemployment from its current level to 7% over three years would mean well over three quarters of a million new jobs created – and given the shrinkage in the public sector, over a million new jobs in the private sector.

Third, a recovery in growth does not necessarily mean faster job creation and lower unemployment. More than half of the increase in employment since the recession has been in part-time jobs. Many part-timers would prefer to work full time. If the recovery were fuelled by involuntary part-time jobs becoming full time, nearly half a million fewer new jobs would be created.

Moreover, there is certainly scope for the economy to grow through an increase in output per hour worked rather than new job creation.

[…] Market interest rates at terms of 2-5 years have also risen recently. The date at which the markets expect the first increase in Bank Rate has moved in from the end of 2015 to mid-2015. One possible explanation is that markets think that unemployment will come down to 7% more quickly than we do. Since the aim of our policy is to secure recovery as quickly as possible, that would be welcome. But policy is built not on hope, but on expectation. And we estimate there is only a 1 in 3 chance of unemployment coming down that quickly.

Arguyó que el requerimiento de que los bancos tengan una proporción de capital más alta que la que tienen actualmente a mediano plazo impulsará el crecimiento, no lo frenará. Además anunció que, para impulsar el flujo de crédito, el Banco de Inglaterra relajará requerimientos de liquidez para aquellos bancos que cumplan con el 7% de capital/activos:

Some argue that the repair of banks’ balance sheets holds back economic recovery because it causes banks to cut back their lending. The reality is the opposite: where capital has been rebuilt and balance sheets repaired, banking systems and economies have prospered.

US banks have added more to their capital base since the crisis and, as a result, have been able to provide more credit to their economy than UK banks have to ours. In the past two years, UK banks have reduced their lending to the real economy by 1%. In those same two years, US banks have increased their lending by more than 8%.

Within Europe, the correlation between the market’s assessment of a bank’s capital base at the end of 2011 and that bank’s lending over the subsequent year is striking.

[…] As a result of the Bank of England’s actions, we can relax other requirements to help with the flow of credit. Balance sheet repair will give confidence to depositors and investors who provide funding to banks. With that market funding assured, banks can safely hold fewer liquid assets, such as government bonds, that act as a cushion to be sold in the event that investors withdraw their funding.

Accordingly, I can confirm today that, for major banks and building societies meeting the minimum 7% capital threshold, the Bank of England will reduce the level of required liquid asset holdings. The effect will be to lower total required holdings by £90 billion, once all eight major banks and building societies meet the capital threshold. That will help to underpin the supply of credit, since every pound currently held in liquid assets is a pound that could be lent to the real economy.