Roubini enumera riesgos conocidos de este otoño

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Incluyen el riesgo de que el retiro de QE sea demasiado pronto y rápido, que las luchas presupuestales en EE UU terminen en el cierre o incumplimiento del gobierno federal, que aumente el cansancio de rescates en la zona del euro, que colapsen los gobiernos de Italia o Grecia, que Japón no lleve a cabo las reformas estructurales (tercera flecha de “Abenomics”) o que el aumento planeado de su impuesto al consumo asfixie la recuperación, que la reunión del Comité Central del Partido Comunista de China no lleve a cabo reformas serias para reequilibrar su economía hacia el consumo, que las economías emergentes con amplios déficits de cuenta corriente sufran crisis financieras, que la guerra en Siria se contagie a toda la región y que Israel comience a hablar otra vez de lanzar un ataque preventivo contra Irán. (Nouriel Roubini en Project Syndicate.)

So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight. They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown. But investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become. With a majority of the Republican Party on a jihad against government spending, fiscal explosions this autumn cannot be ruled out.

[…] In Japan, the policy uncertainty concerns whether the third arrow of Abenomics – structural reforms and trade liberalization to boost potential growth – will be implemented, and whether the expected rise in the consumption tax in 2014 will choke economic recovery.In China, November’s Third Plenum of the Communist Party Central Committee will show whether China is serious about reforms aimed at shifting from investment-led to consumption-led growth.

[…] There are two major geopolitical uncertainties as well. First, will the looming military strikes by the U.S. and its allies against Syria be limited in scope and time, or will they trigger a wider military confrontation? The last thing that a fragile global economy needs now is another round of peak oil prices.

Second, a year ago the U.S. convinced Israel to give its non-military approach to Iran’s nuclear-weapons ambitions time to bear fruit. But, after a year of economic sanctions and negotiations with no result, Israel’s patience on what it regards as an existential issue is wearing thin. Even short of an actual military conflict – which could double oil prices overnight – the resumption of saber-rattling by Israel and the war of words between the two sides could lead to a sharp rise in energy costs.