¿Por qué suben los precios de bonos del Tesoro de EE UU?

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Nick Cawley (WSJ Money Beat) explica algunas razones por las cuales, no obstante el aumento en la probabilidad percibida de que el Tesoro de EE UU incumplirá en algunas de sus obligaciones, la demanda de bonos del Tesoro (y sus precios) ha aumentado. El factor más importante es que nadie espera un incumplimiento permanente; en el peor de los escenarios, los pagos de deuda llegarían con retraso. Por lo tanto, los bonos soberanos de EE UU siguen siendo considerados un activo de refugio. Cawley además cita análisis de HSBC explicando algunas razones técnicas por las cuales los inversores en bonos del Tesoro no sienten pánico.

Firstly, the U.S. government is only likely to delay payments for a few weeks even if the debt ceiling is not raised immediately, said HSBC strategists Steven Major and Lawrence Dyer. In other words, it will pay investors in full, just a little later than usual. According to the U.K.-based bank, payment for a portion of a Treasury bill was delayed by a few days back in 1979.

In addition, there are no question marks over the willingness of the U.S. to repay investors.

And then there are the more technical reasons why HSBC believes investors shouldn’t panic.

First off, there are no cross-default clauses on U.S. Treasurys, meaning that even if payment is delayed on one bond, it does not mean that payments would be delayed on other bonds. So the bonds that are unaffected by any delays in interest payments should trade as normal.

Second, U.S. Treasurys can be ‘stripped’ into two component parts: interest payments and principal, or the original investment that the bondholder receives when his bonds fall due. This flexibility gives the Treasury the ability to pay or delay any coupon payments, while for maturing bonds the Treasury could still pay the principal and the coupon could be stripped and extended.

Finally, there are plans already in place to handle any knock-on effects of any delayed payments, including guidelines from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a leading industry body that represents securities firms, banks, and asset management companies in the U.S. and Hong Kong.

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