Fitch también podría recortar calificación de EE UU
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Fitch Ratings colocó en perspectiva negativa la calificación máxima de AAA que le otorga a la deuda soberana de EE UU. Citó como factores que motivaron su cambio de perspectiva la posibilidad de un incumplimiento técnico por parte del Tesoro y, en general, el daño que ha causado el conflicto político en torno al techo de la deuda a la confianza en el dólar como divisa de reserva global y en la efectividad del gobierno e instituciones estadounidenses. Supone que el techo de la deuda es elevado a tiempo y que el Tesoro no incumple, pero advierte que su decisión también dependerá de la vigencia de cualquier acuerdo político. (Es decir, si el acuerdo es de corto plazo, garantizando otro conflicto en pocos meses, Fitch podría recortar.) De las tres grandes calificadoras, sólo S&P ha recortado la calificación de la deuda soberana de EE UU –lo hizo durante la crisis del techo de la deuda de 2011.
Fitch expects to resolve the [Rating Watch Negative] (RWN) by the end of Q114 at the latest, although timing would necessarily reflect developments and events, including the duration of any agreement to raise the debt ceiling.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
In line with Fitch’s previous statements, the RWN reflects the following key rating drivers and their relative weights:
High
– The U.S. authorities have not raised the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner before the Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures. The U.S. Treasury Secretary has said that extraordinary measures will be exhausted by 17 October, leaving cash reserves of just USD30bn. Although Fitch continues to believe that the debt ceiling will be raised soon, the political brinkmanship and reduced financing flexibility could increase the risk of a U.S. default.
– Although the Treasury would still have limited capacity to make payments after 17 October it would be exposed to volatile revenue and expenditure flows. The Treasury may be unable to prioritise debt service, and it is unclear whether it even has the legal authority to do so. The U.S. risks being forced to incur widespread delays of payments to suppliers and employees, as well as social security payments to citizens – all of which would damage the perception of U.S. sovereign creditworthiness and the economy.
– The prolonged negotiations over raising the debt ceiling (following the episode in August 2011) risks undermining confidence in the role of the U.S. dollar as the preeminent global reserve currency, by casting doubt over the full faith and credit of the U.S. This “faith” is a key reason why the U.S. ‘AAA’ rating can tolerate a substantially higher level of public debt than other ‘AAA’ sovereigns.
Medium
– The repeated brinkmanship over raising the debt ceiling also dents confidence in the effectiveness of the U.S. government and political institutions, and in the coherence and credibility of economic policy. It will also have some detrimental effect on the U.S. economy.
The ‘AAA’ rating reflects the U.S.’s strong economic and credit fundamentals, including:
– Its highly productive, diversified and wealthy economy; extraordinary monetary and exchange rate flexibility; and the exceptional financing flexibility afforded by the global reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar and the depth and liquidity of domestic capital markets – in particular the U.S. Treasury market. The U.S. sovereign credit profile also benefits from the respect for property rights, the rule of law and a high degree of social stability.
[…]
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch continues to believe that an agreement will be reached to end the current political impasse and raise the U.S. debt ceiling. Even if the debt limit is not raised before or shortly after 17 October, we assume there is sufficient political will and capacity to ensure that Treasury securities will continue to be honoured in full and on time.
Fitch’s federal debt projections reflect its economic and fiscal policy assumptions and were detailed in the Special Report, ‘U.S. Medium-Term Fiscal Projections – An Update’ (dated 28 June 2013; see link below). Subsequent to that analysis, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the level of GDP up by around 3.4% due to revisions in the way GDP is calculated, including reclassifying spending on R&D and intellectual property as investment. This has had the statistical effect of lowering debt/GDP ratios, but has not significantly affected the trajectory of debt dynamics or its sensitivity to shocks. Since the June review, Fitch has revised down its forecasts for GDP growth for 2013 to 1.6% from 1.9% and for 2014 to 2.6% from 2.8%.
Fitch’s medium-term fiscal projections incorporate assumptions regarding the medium-term growth potential of the US economy and do not incorporate potential upside benefits from shale gas or downside risks emanating from the eurozone and elsewhere. They draw heavily upon Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections, including CBO assumptions and judgements regarding the take up of various benefits as well as the rate of growth of health care spending.