Proyecciones OCDE sobre deuda griega son más pesimistas que las del FMI

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El estudio económico anual de Grecia de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) incluye proyecciones para la deuda pública de Grecia mucho más pesimistas que las del FMI de julio 2013. Bajo el escenario central de la OCDE, la deuda de Grecia como porcentaje de su PIB será de 157% en 2020 (vs 124% según el FMI). Casi dos terceras partes de la diferencia se debe a que la OCDE espera deflación marcadamente mayor a la supuesta por el FMI: entre 2014 y 2020, la OCDE espera una tasa de inflación anual promedio de -0.6%, mientras que el FMI espera +1.0%. Lean aquí los comentarios sobre el informe del Secretario General José Ángel Gurría.

MacroPolis resume el escenario central de la OCDE:

According to a mid-term growth scenario that is less optimistic than that of the troika, Greece’s real GDP level in 2020 will be about 6 percent lower than that forecast made by the country’s lenders. Added to this, the OECD sees a price decline that is 12 percent greater than the one the troika assumes for the 2013-2020 period. Although this has a negative effect on real GDP and the denominator of the debt-to-GDP ratio, it will also bring a significant improvement of 20 percent to the price-based real effective exchange rate of Greece.

Under the OECD scenario, the 4.5 percent of GDP primary surplus, which the troika expects Greece to reach in 2016, will not be achieved before 2018 on the assumption that automatic stabilisers will need to operate partially.

The OECD also questions the troika’s DSA assumptions regarding a real GDP growth rate of 4.8 percent per year in the period 2014-2020. “Such a rapid and sustained pace of growth is very unlikely, even in the presence of a substantial output gap, given both the historical performance of the Greek economy and the weakening of its potential growth since the beginning of the crisis” says the report.

According to its calculations, the OECD sees Greece’s debt in 2020 at just under 160 percent of GDP, which is 36 percentage points higher than the July 2013 troika DSA.