GSP Brasil: El país necesita restricción monetaria y fiscal

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti y Marcelo Gazzano de GlobalSource Partners Brasil explican ($) que el banco central y el gobierno enfrentan el desafío de tener que restringir la política monetaria y fiscal al mismo tiempo para restaurar la confianza de los mercados.

Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti y Marcelo Gazzano, The Central Bank and its Difficult Mission, 3 febrero 2014)

In Brazil, the yield curve has totally abandoned the signals sent by the Central Bank after the last COPOM meeting, that there would only be one more increase in the SELIC rate, of 25 or 50 basis points, ending the tightening cycle. Last week the curve indicated the market expects an increase of more than 50 points at the next COPOM meeting, followed by at least two more 50-point hikes, taking the rate above 13% a year.[…] If the government wants to restore investors’ confidence in the country, it will have to strive for a primary surplus of at least 2% of GDP, something that would require a much stronger fiscal effort, in an election year.To the extent the fiscal effort falls shy, the weight will rest instead on monetary policy, and unfortunately the forecasts currently reflected by the yield curve will likely materialize. Paradoxically, this is exactly what the government has tried to avoid in recent years. In other words, by insisting on an insufficient fiscal policy reaction, it has wound up accentuating the deceleration of economic growth.