En marzo, proyecciones 2016 del BCE pueden justificar estímulo o pausa

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En la reunión del 6 de marzo del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), el Consejo de Gobierno publicará proyecciones económicas actualizadas que ahora serán extendidas hasta 2016. Los analistas ven en esta decisión de extender el pronóstico de inflación dos posibles consecuencias. Si la proyección de inflación para 2016 permanece significativamente inferior a 2%, el BCE puede apoyarse en ella para justificar más medidas de estímulo monetario. En cambio, si la proyección vuelve a su sendero de convergencia a la meta del BCE (debajo pero cerca de 2%), el BCE puede decir que su meta será cumplida en el mediano plazo, justificando la inacción. No hay consenso sobre qué puede ocurrir. Los economistas de JP Morgan piensan que la proyección de inflación comenzará a convergir a la meta y que el BCE no anunciará cambios, mientras que los de Barclays ($) piensan que la trayectoria permanecerá significativamente por debajo de la meta, justificando un recorte de tasas.

Bruce Kasman, David Hensley y Joseph Lupton de JP Morgan (Global Data Watch, 7 febrero 2014):

The low inflation environment is clearly putting pressure on the ECB. But we believe it will take time for sustained sub-1% inflation to prompt a policy response. At this week’s press briefing ECB President Draghi announced that the staff forecast for inflation would be extended through to 2016. This decision can be interpreted in one of two ways: as a way of rationalizing further easing measures in March (by having a low inflation projection) or as a way of rationalizing policy on hold (by having an inflation projection moving back toward the target). We are inclined toward the latter interpretation. The 2016 forecast has been around internally at the ECB for a while, and if it pointed to the need for further easing, we believe the central bank would have eased already. More likely, the 2016 inflation projection will be used to reassure that inflation is moving back to the target and thus that inflation expectations should remain well anchored.

Gudin, Garcia Pascual, Harjes y Maraffino de Barclays $ (Instant Insights: ECB action likely to be postponed to March, 5 febrero 2014):

The ECB’s macroeconomic projections due next month should bring another downward revision of the inflation outlook. Importantly, the ECB announced today that it had decided to extend its forecast horizon by one calendar year already in March (so far this was always done in December) and the new 2016 inflation forecast will be key with the ECB’s focus on the medium-term outlook. The ECB acknowledged in its policy statement that the January inflation rate was lower than generally expected. We expect a downward revision of the 2014/15 inflation figures (currently at 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively) and a 2016 inflation forecast which should be considerably less than “slightly below 2%” (the ECB’s definition of price stability). In this case, the ECB would be forced to act and cut rates again, in our view, also because President Draghi repeated today that the ECB’s inflation target is symmetric and that the Council clearly sees the risk of inflation staying too low for too long.