GlobalSource Partners Ucrania: Ucrania puede evitar incumplimiento

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Vladimir Dubrovskiy y Dmytro Boyarchuk de GlobalSource Partners ($) ven posible que Ucrania evite el incumplimiento si se forma rápidamente un gabinete tecnocrático que prometa reformas difíciles al FMI y la Unión Europea a cambio del financiamiento necesario:

Still, if the technical Cabinet is formed rapidly, and credit from the IMF and EU are secured (Poroshenko claims $25 billion has already been committed), we see very good chances for Ukraine to avoid sovereign default, and to deal effectively with the currency crisis. Certainly, though, such loans will be contingent upon fundamental (i.e., painful) reforms to the national economic system.

[…] All in all, we must state clearly that without any external support (either from Russia or the IMF) Ukraine’s solvency is a serious issue with many questions surrounding it. Though gross reserves still contain some hard currency, without substantial external funding we see it very probable that the Ministry of Finance will start negotiating on the $1.0 billion Eurobonds and $1.6 billion Naftogaz restructuring. We hope that a new technocratic Cabinet will be created promptly what will open the way to Western loans, otherwise we see risks of default exceeding 50%.