Discurso dovish de Yellen omite “seis meses” y “estabilidad financiera”

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Resumen. En un discurso el 16 de abril, Janet Yellen, presidente de la Reserva Federal, dijo que las acciones del FOMC en el mediano plazo dependerán de las respuestas a tres preguntas: ¿Todavía hay significativa holgura en el mercado laboral? ¿La inflación está regresando hacia 2%? ¿Cuáles factores podrían descarrilar la recuperación? Dos temas destacaron por su ausencia e hicieron que el discurso fuera considerado dovish. Primero, Yellen no mencionó un posible lapso de “seis meses” entre el fin de las compras de activos y el comienzo de los aumentos de tasas, como lo había hecho en marzo. (Ese lapso implicaría un primer aumento en la primera mitad de 2015, antes de lo que espera el mercado.) Segundo, no mencionó consideraciones de estabilidad financiera que podrían motivar a la Fed a ser menos acomodaticio de lo que sería de otro modo.

A continuación compartimos algunos pasajes clave del discurso de Yellen (estos pasajes excluyen las notas al pie del discurso completo). Mencionó tres preguntas principales para el Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC):

Because the course of the economy is uncertain, monetary policymakers need to carefully watch for signs that it is diverging from the baseline outlook and then respond in a systematic way. Let me turn first to monitoring and discuss three questions I believe are likely to loom large in the FOMC’s ongoing assessment of where we are on the path back to maximum employment and price stability.

1. ¿Todavía hay significativa holgura en el mercado laboral? Yellen cree que sí; más de lo que sugiere la tasa de desempleo.

Other data suggest that there may be more slack in labor markets than indicated by the unemployment rate. For example, the share of the workforce that is working part time but would prefer to work full time remains quite high by historical standards. Similarly, while the share of workers in the labor force who are unemployed and have been looking for work for more than six months has fallen from its peak in 2010, it remains as high as any time prior to the Great Recession. There is ongoing debate about why long-term unemployment remains so high and the degree to which it might decline in a more robust economy. As I argued more fully in a recent speech, I believe that long-term unemployment might fall appreciably if economic conditions were stronger.

The low level of labor force participation may also signal additional slack that is not reflected in the headline unemployment rate. Participation would be expected to fall because of the aging of the population, but the decline steepened in the recovery. Although economists differ over what share of those currently outside the labor market might join or rejoin the labor force in a stronger economy, my own view is that some portion of the decline in participation likely represents labor market slack.

Lastly, economists also look to wage pressures to signal a tightening labor market. At present, wage gains continue to proceed at a historically slow pace in this recovery, with few signs of a broad-based acceleration. As the extent of slack we see today diminishes, however, the FOMC will need to monitor these and other labor market indicators closely to judge how much slack remains and, therefore, how accommodative monetary policy should be.

2. ¿La inflación está volviendo a convergir a 2%? (La tasa de inflación CPI de marzo fue de 1.5%, mientras que la PCE –preferida de la Fed– fue de 0.9% en febrero.) Yellen menciona dos razones por las que el FOMC cree que la tasa de inflación se recuperará:

I will mention two considerations that will be important in assessing whether inflation is likely to move back to 2 percent as the economy recovers. First, we anticipate that, as labor market slack diminishes, it will exert less of a drag on inflation. However, during the recovery, very high levels of slack have seemingly not generated strong downward pressure on inflation. We must therefore watch carefully to see whether diminishing slack is helping return inflation to our objective. Second, our baseline projection rests on the view that inflation expectations will remain well anchored near 2 percent and provide a natural pull back to that level. But the strength of that pull in the unprecedented conditions we continue to face is something we must continue to assess.

3. ¿Cuáles factores podrían descarrilar la recuperación? En los últimos cinco años, la restricción fiscal más agresiva de lo esperado, el contagio por la crisis en la zona del euro y el inesperado daño estructural a la economía fueron factores que descarrilaron la recuperación en 2011 y 2012, afirmó Yellen.

[In] both 2011 and 2012, the unemployment rate actually declined by about as much as had been forecast the previous year, but only after unexpected weakness prompted additional accommodative steps by the Federal Reserve. In both cases, I believe that the FOMC’s decision to respond to signs of weakness with significant additional accommodation played an important role in helping to keep the projected labor market recovery on track. These episodes illustrate what I described earlier as a vital aspect of effective monetary policymaking: monitor the economy for signs that events are unfolding in a materially different manner than expected and adjust policy in response in a systematic manner.

Más adelante, hablando de los cambios recientes a la orientación a futuro, Yellen repitió lo que el FOMC publicó en su comunicado de marzo. No mencionó “seis meses”.

At present, the Committee anticipates that economic and financial conditions will likely warrant maintaining the current range “for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.”