Barclays: Riesgos al alza para el precio de petróleo en el corto y largo plazo

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Kevin Norrish de Barclays (Global Macro Daily, 25 junio 2014) ve riesgos al alza para el precio de petróleo en el corto plazo porque cree que OPEC deberá proveer más petróleo en la segunda mitad de este año que en la primera mitad. Estima que un choque a la producción iraquí similar al que ocurrió por sabotaje en 2011 podría llevar el precio de barril de Brent a $125 (el barril hoy se vende en $114). En el más largo plazo, considera que el conflicto en Irak está elevando las expectativas de precios al reducir el crecimiento futuro esperado de la producción de crudo iraquí.

Norish sobre el riesgo en la segunda mitad de este año:

[Whilst] OPEC has not got the same leverage in oil markets it did when it was the only source of supply growth for most of the past decade, its role as a swing producer in smoothing out supply and demand fluctuations is still vital and due for another big test in Q3. A combination of better global growth, a seasonal step-up in oil demand and a moderation in non-OPEC supply growth due to problems in mature non-OPEC basins (such as the North Sea) and missed targets at new operations (for example, in Kazakhstan) means that OPEC will need to supply roughly 1m bpd more oil in H2 14 than in H1. That would be difficult under normal circumstances, especially at this time of year, when Saudi Arabia, the only holder of any significant spare capacity in OPEC, sees its own summer oil demand for cooling move up substantially. It will be very hard indeed if there is any significant disruption to Iraq’s production.