Our assumptions

Genevieve Signoret

(Hay una versión en español de este artículo aquí.)

The following is an excerpt from Quarterly Outlook. Click here to read the full report.

We call our assumptions that distinguish across scenarios “pivotal assumptions” and summarize them in the following table:

Our two scenarios are built on seven pivotal assumptions

Q2 2022 – Q1 2023 Forecast: Pivotal assumptions

Source:TransEconomics.

Both scenarios rest, further, on assumptions that no tail risks will materialize. We turn now to these.

In both scenarios we assume that no tail risks will materialize

Q2 2022 – Q1 2023 Forecast: Assumptions underlying both scenarios

Source:TransEconomics.

Research assistance by Estefanía Villeda. Editing by Andrés Aranda.