Quarterly Outlook for 2022–2024: Still Soft

Genevieve Signoret

(Hay una versión en español de este artículo aquí.)

We have built three forecast scenarios for the global economy and markets in the next eight quarters. What follows is the introduction. For the full forecast report in PDF, click here or visit our Research page. 

Introduction

The million-dollar question right now is whether the stock market has bottomed already and, if so, how long till it takes off again and how bumpy or smooth will be that take-off. And this is the million-dollar question whether or not you’re in the stock market, because it’s so tightly related to a slew of other questions affecting your life: financing availability and costs, exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, and of course asset valuations—including the valuation of your real estate holdings and even your own company.

Readers in fact should think of the question, Has the stock market bottomed and, if so, how imminent and how smooth will be the next take-off? as a way to summarize all the weighty questions nagging at us as to financial conditions moving forward.

The simple answer to this question is, we don’t know. But we think we do know what it depends on: supply-side issues.

Starting in 2020, we’ve been hit by a cascade of supply shocks and aftershocks that don’t seem to let up. All our uncertainty stems from not knowing their future course.  Are they about to let up? If so, how soon will central banks put rate hikes on pause?  Or are the supply shocks going to persist? If so, how much higher will inflation and rates go? Are we in or will enter a global recession? When will the stock market hit bottom?

Click here for the full story.