Mexico inflation data confirm downside risk scenario

Delia Paredes & Genevieve Signoret

(Hay una versión en español de este artículo aquí.)

Mexico’s inflation path this quarter has closely followed that which we envisioned in the downside risk scenario we laid out last June.

Headline inflation spiked to 5.2% in the first fortnight of August, with most of the rebound explained by pressures from agricultural products and energy.

Core inflation, on the other hand, remains around 4%. However, data on services and particularly education are higher than we had expected. Hence, we now anticipate a transitory uptick in core inflation rates for August and September.

We see a risk that core inflation will temporarily resurge

Consumer price index, 12-month % change

Source: Inegi.

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