Saliendo del paso: detalles y fuentes sobre el rescate de Grecia
Patrick Signoret
El Eurogrupo aprobó las medidas tomadas por Grecia y acordó implementar el segundo plan de rescate.
Greece finally secured its second giant bailout early Tuesday after euro zone finance ministers agreed to save it from bankruptcy in exchange for severe austerity measures and strict conditions.
Under the bailout terms, which were not finalized until after 5 a.m. Tuesday, Greece will reduce its debt to about 120.5 percent of its gross domestic product by 2020, from about 160 percent now.
…representatives of banks that hold Greek bonds, who had agreed in October to take a 50 percent loss on the face value of their bonds, agreed to take a 53.5 percent loss on the face value, the equivalent to an overall loss of around 75 percent.
Meanwhile Greece will pay lower interest rates on its bailout loans, and the European Central Bank agreed to give up profits from Greek bonds bought at a discount, and to pass those gains back to the government in Athens. This will be done via euro zone member countries because of the Central Bank’s regulations.
Financial Times menciona que el acuerdo incluye la presencia reforzada de monitores internacionales y una cuenta de garantía (escrow account) temporal mientras Grecia modifica su constitución para garantizar que el pago a la deuda sea la primera prioridad del gasto gubernamental.
Sin embargo, el comunicado del Eurogrupo todavía contiene algunos puntos pendientes.
It is understood that the disbursements for the PSI operation and the final decision to approve the guarantees for the second programme are subject to a successful PSI operation and confirmation, by the Eurogroup on the basis of an assessment by the Troika, of the legal implementation by Greece of the agreed prior actions. The official sector will decide on the precise amount of financial assistance to be provided in the context of the second Greek programme in early March, once the results of PSI are known and the prior actions have been implemented.
Además, un informe (PDF) preparado por analistas de la troika para los ministros de finanzas la semana pasada, y filtrado lunes en la noche, advierte que el plan para 2020 sigue sin ser realista. Financial Times:
The 10-page debt sustainability analysis, distributed to eurozone officials last week but obtained by the Financial Times on Monday night, found that even under the most optimistic scenario, the austerity measures being imposed on Athens risk a recession so deep that Greece will not be able to climb out of the debt hole over the course of a new three-year, €170bn bail-out.
A “tailored downside scenario” in the report suggests Greek debt could fall far more slowly than hoped, to only 160 per cent of economic output by 2020 – well below the target of 120 per cent set by the International Monetary Fund. Under such a scenario, Greece would need about €245bn in bail-out aid, far more than the €170bn under the “baseline” projections.
Este artículo de Brussels blog de FT explica punto por punto los pasajes más importantes del informe, incluyendo el siguiente párrafo en el resumen:
There are notable risks. Given the high prospective level and share of senior debt, the prospects for Greece to be able to return to the market in the years following the end of the new program are uncertain and require more analysis. Prolonged financial support on appropriate terms by the official sector may be necessary. Moreover, there is a fundamental tension between the program objectives of reducing debt and improving competitiveness, in that the internal devaluation needed to restore Greece competitiveness will inevitably lead to a higher debt to GDP ratio in the near term. In this context, a scenario of particular concern involves internal devaluation through deeper recession (due to continued delays with structural reforms and with fiscal policy and privatization implementation). This would result in a much higher debt trajectory, leaving debt as high as 160 percent of GDP in 2020. Given the risks, the Greek program may thus remain accident-prone, with questions about sustainability hanging over it.