Encuesta Fed sugiere ningún cambio en la postura monetaria
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
La encuesta de la Fed a oficiales de préstamo sobre prácticas crediticias (SLOOS) reveló que en abril la condiciones crediticias fueron más relajadas para empresas y consumo y más restrictivas para vivienda. La demanda de los tres tipos de crédito aumentó. Informe en HTML, PDF.
Este resultado apenas apoya nuestra perspectiva de política monetaria para el corto plazo: ni una tercera ronda de relajamiento cuantitativo (QE3) ni una mayor restricción monetaria. La apoya porque la tendencia en la demanda de crédito está al alza. La apoya apenas porque las condiciones crediticias para préstamos hipotecarios se vuelven más astringentes. Una renovada salud en el sector hipotecario es la condición más importante para que se acelere el crecimiento en EE UU.
Los bancos en EE UU ganan participación en el mercado global de crédito por la desconfianza en bancos europeos.
Del resumen:
Overall, in the April survey, modest net fractions of domestic banks generally reported having eased their lending standards and having experienced stronger demand over the past three months.
Standards on C&I loans to large and middle-market firms, and to small firms, were about unchanged. However, moderate to large net fractions of domestic banks eased many terms on C&I loans to firms of all sizes
Regarding loans to households, standards on prime residential mortgage loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) were about unchanged. However, the April survey indicated a moderate strengthening in demand for prime residential mortgage loans.
The survey included two sets of special questions: the first set asked banks about lending to firms with European exposures, and the second set asked banks about their residential real estate (RRE) lending policies.
In response to the first set, banks reported tightening standards on loans to European banks and on loans to nonfinancial firms with substantial business in Europe, and domestic respondents reported increased demand owing to reduced competition from European banks.
In response to the second set, banks reported that they were less likely than in 2006, to varying degrees, to originate mortgages to any borrowers apart from those with the strongest credit profiles.
Terminamos esta entrada con dos gráficas del informe:
