Citi: Grecia saldrá de ZE antes de 2014 con probabilidad=50-75%

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Citi (vía CNBC) cree altamente probable que la Troika posponga el pago del siguiente tramo del paquete de rescate en junio y que Grecia, al final, deba salirse de la zona del euro.

CNBC:

The risk of Greece exiting the euro zone have risen to as much as 75 percent, according to economists at Citi. Describing such an outcome as a “Grexit,” the Citi team said, however, that the chances of a broad-based break-up of the euro zone remain very low.

“Without a functioning government, it seems highly unlikely that Greece would be in a position to present the Troika with plans for additional budget savings worth 7 percent of GDP by the end of June,” said Guillaume Menuet, an economist at Citi, in a research report on Monday.

“The Troika is likely to delay the disbursement of the next tranche of the program. Note that for the second quarter of 2012, disbursements of 31.3 billion euros ($40.7 billion) from the bailout program are scheduled,” he said. “If Greece does not make progress, in a second step, the Troika is likely to stop the program. If that happens, the Greek sovereign and its banking sector would run out of funding.”

Subrayamos el siguiente párrafo del informe de Citi (Election Watch, “Hollande Takes Over; ‘Grexit’ More Likely”, 7 mayo 2012):

Overall, the outcome of the Greek election shows that it will be very difficult to form a viable coalition and to implement the measures required in the MoU. Particularly, the identification of the 7% GDP of budget savings for 2013 and 2014 by the end of June looks very unlikely to us. As a consequence, in a first step, the Troika is likely to delay the disbursement of the next tranche of the programme. Note that for 2Q2012, disbursements of €31.3bn from the bailout programme are scheduled. If Greece does not make progress, in a second step, the Troika is likely to stop the programme. If that happens, the Greek sovereign and its banking sector would run out of funding. As a consequence, we expect that Greece would be forced to leave the euro area. With the outcome of the election, to us the probability of a Greek exit is now larger than our previous estimate of 50%, and rises to between 50-75%.However, even after the elections in Greece, France and Germany, we regard the probability of a broad-based break-up of the monetary union as very low. We continue to expect that in reaction to Greece leaving the euro area, more far reaching measures from governments and the ECB would be put in place.