Bernanke confirma nuestra perspectiva

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Ben Bernanke presentó ante el Congreso testimonio (HTML, PDF) que leemos como validación de que la Fed no anunciará una tercera ronda de relajamiento cuantitativo en ausencia de un severo deterioro de las condiciones económicas o financieras. Tendría que observar una de tres cosas:

1. Una severa crisis financiera irrumpida o por irrumpir, emanando de la zona del euro. Bernanke:

Nevertheless, the situation in Europe poses significant risks to the U.S. financial system and economy and must be monitored closely. As always, the Federal Reserve remains prepared to take action as needed to protect the U.S. financial system and economy in the event that financial stresses escalate.

2. Un colapso en las expectativas de inflación a largo plazo (5 años o más). Bernanke:

Longer-term inflation expectations have, indeed, been quite well anchored, according to surveys of households and economic forecasters and as derived from financial market information. For example, the five-year-forward measure of inflation compensation derived from yields on nominal and inflation-protected Treasury securities suggests that inflation expectations among investors have changed little, on net, since last fall and are lower than a year ago.

 3. Un rápido aumento en la tasa de desempleo.Bernanke:

Meanwhile, the substantial resource slack in U.S. labor and product markets should continue to restrain inflationary pressures.