Riesgo de que España posponga solicitud formal de rescate

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Barclays piensa que España solicitará ayuda formal al fondo europeo de rescate antes de la cumbre europea del 18-19 octubre, pero ve riesgos de que lo posponga hasta después de las elecciones regionales (Galicia y País Vasco el 21 de octubre y Cataluña el 25 de noviembre). Habíamos leído cosas similares ayer en El País y Reuters.

Given Rajoy’s limited room to maneuver ahead of elections in Galicia and Pais Vasco, on October 21, and Cataluña on November 25, the risks of delay have grown. Finance minister Luis de Guindos is ready to move forward, but government members think that it may be a mistake politically. Their view is that with 90% of the funding for 2012 covered, Spain can afford to wait until elections are over. The problem is that by waiting, activity will continue to slow and credit conditions to tighten, putting the hopeful fiscal target off track. Will the Bundestag be willing to demand the same conditions if Spain’s deficit and growth targets slip? Conditionality seems likely to become tougher if help is delayed.

Barclays, “Global Macro Daily London Open”, 5 octubre 2012.