Banco de Japón bajo fuerte presión política para proveer más estímulo
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Shinzo Abe, líder de la oposición y ex primer ministro, ha pedido que el Banco de Japón (BdJ) provea más estímulo y aumente su objetivo de inflación a 2-3% y ha amenazado con cambiar la ley del banco central para promover esos objetivos. El Banco hasta ahora ha resistido a la presión (ayer dejó sin cambio el tamaño de su programa de compras de activos). Sin embargo, las elecciones generales adelantadas al 16 de diciembre probablemente traerán nuevamente al poder a Abe, quien podrá nombrar a un nuevo gobernador y dos subgobernadores del banco central cuando sus términos terminen en marzo y abril de 2013 (JP Morgan, Bloomberg).
El comité de política monetaria tiene nueve miembros en total. Además del gobernador y dos subgobernadores, hay seis directores ejecutivos. Ninguno de los mandatos de los directores termina en 2013.
Masamichi Adachi de JP Morgan en Global Data Watch (16 noviembre 2012):
The BoJ is under siege. With elections looming on December 16, LDP leader and likely next Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gave a speech underscoring his more activist approach to reviving growth and inflation. With respect to economic policy, Abe wants to increase public investment to boost growth so that next year’s budget will be economically stimulative. On monetary policy, Abe reiterated his support for a 2%-3% inflation target and his view of closer cooperation between the government and the BoJ to achieve this goal. Abe has threatened to change the BoJ law to promote these objectives, although this may not be necessary since he will have the opportunity to appoint the new central bank governor and two deputy governors when their terms expire in coming months. What new policies the BoJ might pursue beyond additional JGB purchases remains unclear. What is clear is that the tension between the government and the central bank is set to escalate significantly after next month’s election.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa pushed back against pressure on the central bank, criticizing the unlimited easing advocated by opposition leader Shinzo Abe and urging respect for the BOJ’s independence.
“I want respect for the BOJ’s independence as it’s doing its utmost to conduct appropriate monetary policy,” Shirakawa told reporters in Tokyo today.
Without naming Abe, Shirakawa said that unlimited money- printing could worsen the national debt and that a 3 percent inflation goal, also suggested by the opposition leader, would be unrealistic. A shrinking economy and an election on Dec. 16 are encouraging politicians to press the central bank for more aggressive action to spur growth and counter deflation.
[…] Abe, head of the Liberal Democratic Party that is leading in polls to win next month’s vote, helped drive the yen to a seven-month low yesterday by fueling speculation that more easing is likely. The government taking office after the election will have extra room to reshape policy by choosing the central bank’s top three officials.
[…] Shirakawa, criticized by politicians for his perceived failure to reverse more than a decade of deflation, ends a five- year term on April 8. His deputies Hirohide Yamaguchi and Kiyohiko Nishimura exit in March.
[…] Abe said on Nov. 17 that he may ask the BOJ to buy construction bonds to support government spending and would choose someone in favor of inflation targets as Shirakawa’s successor, Kyodo News reported.
Directly buying government debt “is on the top list of taboos when the International Monetary Fund advises developing nations on their central bank systems,” Shirakawa said at today’s press conference. “No developed nations are doing it.”