BoE tolerará inflación arriba de 2% durante años para apoyar recuperación

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El Banco de Inglaterra (BoE) tolerará inflación arriba de 2% durante años para apoyar recuperación (informe trimestral de inflación, comentarios introductorios a la conferencia de prensa del Gobernador Mervyn King, FT).

Mervyn King:

Inflation is likely to rise further in the near term and may remain above the 2% target for the next two years, reflecting sterling’s recent depreciation and the persistent contribution from administered and regulated prices. That persistent contribution is increasingly offset by a gentle moderation in domestic cost growth, and an easing in external price pressures, such that inflation is likely to fall back to around the target by the end of the forecast period. The outlook for inflation over much of the forecast period is higher than in the November Report, reflecting the impacts of administered prices and the lower exchange rate.

You might be tempted to think that an above-target inflation forecast justifies a tighter monetary policy. Certainly, ensuring that inflation returns to target in the medium term is our primary responsibility and objective. But the MPC’s remit is to deliver price stability in the medium term in a way that avoids undesirable volatility in output in the short run. The prospect of a further prolonged period of above-target inflation must therefore be considered alongside the weakness of the real economy. Attempting to bring inflation back to target sooner would risk derailing the recovery and undershooting the target in the medium term. So long as domestic cost and price pressures remain subdued, we will continue to look through the temporary, albeit protracted, period of above-target inflation in order to support the recovery in growth and employment.