Gobierno alemán seguirá enfocado en austeridad después de elecciones

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

A cinco meses de las elecciones generales alemanas (22 septiembre), la canciller Angela Merkel y su partido de centro-derecha mantienen una ventaja cómoda en las encuestas (Infratest Dimap). A pesar de la ventaja, es casi un hecho que deberá gobernar en coalición con al menos un otro partido, posiblemente en “gran coalición” con el partido socialdemócrata. Quentin Peel de FT explica que, aunque esto ocurra, es poco probable que el gobierno se enfoque menos en la austeridad o se vuelva más entusiasta por la emisión de deuda conjunta.

Quentin Peel de FT:

Even if the chancellor tops the poll, the centre-right coalition she heads may have no majority. Her Christian Democratic Union, and the Christian Social Union, its Bavaria-based sister party, together have about 40 per cent support – more than 10 points ahead of the SPD. But only 25 per cent of voters want to see the CDU/CSU alliance with the liberal Free Democratic party returned to power. The preferred choice would be a “grand coalition” with the SPD.

Thanks to the peculiarities of Germany’s electoral system, and the need to forge a coalition of at least two parties to win a majority, the precise result after polling day on September 22 is still too close to call. With six parties expected to win seats in the Bundestag, there are at least four possible coalition outcomes, ranging from centre-right to centre-left.

Aunque Merkel se vea obligada a entrar en coalición con la centro-izquierda, escribe Peel, el gobierno seguirá enfocado en la austeridad:

[…] In Paris, Madrid and Rome, there is hope that if Ms Merkel is forced to switch partners, the poll could produce a less austerity-focused administration in Berlin. Yet if François Hollande, France’s Socialist president, is looking for a tilt to the left in Germany, or measures to boost growth, he may be disappointed. Mr Steinbrück is aware that many of his supporters sympathise with the Swabian housewife: they do not want to see growth financed by more borrowing.

[Jürgen Falter, a professor at Mainz university,] says the dilemma for the SPD on Europe is that “if they call for more solidarity for the eurozone, they will hit deep distrust in the electorate.” German voters are convinced that they have tightened their belts and lived within their means, he says. They do not want the eurozone to become a “transfer union” financed by German taxpayers.

[…] The eurozone debate has divided the SPD. “Europe is too important (for us) to commit the danger of populism,” says Michael Roth, European affairs spokesman for the SPD in the Bundestag. “The SPD has pursued a constructive policy, with a very difficult discussion inside the party.”

Mr Steinbrück is not looking for a fight he cannot win. Ideas that he floated two years ago for the introduction of jointly guaranteed eurozone bonds, or a debt redemption fund, have been quietly shelved, if not wholly abandoned.