Esperamos más del BCE este año

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Timón Económico y este blog estaban en pausa cuando el BCE recortó su tasa de política monetaria en 25 puntos base a 0.50% la semana pasada. Hoy presentamos comentarios de Barclays y JPMorgan.

Joseph Lupton de JP Morgan (Global Data Watch, 3 mayo 2013):

Against the backdrop of a large growth and inflation undershoot relative to its forecast, the central bank actions are still not addressing the need for a monetary response to insufficient regional demand. If the economy recovers modestly in 2H as we expect, the ECB will stay on hold. However, the need for ease will remain and the pressure on the ECB is likely to build— particularly if our forecast of a rising trade-weighted value of the Euro materializes.

In this regard, the ECB signalled this week that it was beginning consultation for improving the transmission of its already easy monetary policy stance, specifically the problem of lackluster SME lending. However, it only agreed to launch an external consultation. In asking governments and the European Investment Bank to take the lead, it reinforced the message that it is reluctant to take more risk onto its balance sheet. For its part, the EIB would promote increased bank lending to SMEs by providing credit guarantees, transforming these loans into high quality assets that would be readily accepted as collateral at the ECB. For this to work, however, the EIB would need a capital injection and this would require parliamentary approval at the national level. The upcoming EcoFin meeting in two weeks will be important to watch for further details on this recommendation..

Philippe Gudin, Thomas Harjes y Antonio Garcia Pascual de Barclays (ECB Watching, “ECB cuts rates to historical low and remains on alert for more action”, 2 mayo 2013):

President Draghi left the door wide open for still lower ECB rates, with the possibility of negative rates for its deposit facility. He noted that the ECB was technically ready and could also address and cope with the possible adverse side effects negative deposit rates might have. Our baseline forecast for ECB rates remains “unchanged until end-2014” for now but further broad-based economic weakness in the euro area may trigger more action especially if inflation fails to start reverting to the ECB’s medium-term target (close to but below 2%) over the course of this year.

[…] While there were no other non-standard measures announced at this point, we remain of the view that the ECB could consider another LTRO at a later stage. To kill two birds with one stone, the new LTRO could be done on SME loans (or on SME backed ABS) as collateral. And to make it attractive to banks, it could be done at longer maturities (3y+) and possibly at the refinancing rate prevailing when the LTROs commence instead of averaging MRO rates over the LTRO duration. Furthermore, the ECB could also change its collateral eligibility or the haircuts applied to the SME-backed ABS.