Manuel Sánchez sobre efecto de mercados globales en México

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En un discurso el lunes, Manuel Sánchez, miembro de la Junta de Gobierno del Banco de México, explicó cómo percibe que los mercados financieros globales están afectando a los mercados mexicanos. Observó que en días recientes se ha revertido la entrada de capitales al país, que la curva de rendimientos soberanos de México se ha desplazado hacia arriba y que el peso se ha depreciado, pero cree que los ajustes han sido ordenados y continuarán siéndolo. Su perspectiva sobre la inflación fue consistente con la comunicación reciente de Banxico: considera que los choques sobre la inflación general son transitorios y espera que la tasa de inflación pronto regrese a una tendencia hacia el objetivo de 3%.

Manuel Sánchez observó que en días recientes se ha revertido la entrada de capitales al país, la curva de rendimientos soberanos de México se ha desplazado hacia arriba y el peso se ha depreciado, pero cree que los ajustes han sido ordenados y continuarán siéndolo.

During the last few weeks, sentiment has changed in global financial markets. Favorable U.S. economic data and various Federal Reserve officials’ statements have fueled market and analysts’ expectations for an imminent start to the tapering of quantitative easing in the United States.

Hence, the April employment report published in May approximately coincided with the beginning of a rising trend in long-term government bond rates in the United States and other nations. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has been appreciating with respect to many currencies.

The resulting volatility in global financial markets has brought about considerable increases in Mexican government bond yields. For some maturities, the upward shift in the yield curve has offset the downward shifts seen in the first four months of the year. Like other emerging-market currencies, the peso has been depreciating against the dollar.

Adjustments in Mexico’s financial markets have occurred in an orderly way. FX market volumes have continued to be high, bid-ask spreads have remained slim, and foreign holdings of peso-denominated bonds are still near record highs, although portfolio duration has been declining throughout the year.

Recent global financial volatility is a foretaste of what could happen when the process of U.S. monetary policy unwinding begins in earnest. Hence, it is likely that some turbulence may continue.

Given this scenario, the Mexican economy is expected to confront any new episode of uncertainty in a solid manner. However, it is important that creditors as well as debtors remain wary of their FX and interest-rate risk exposures. At the same time, authorities need to remain vigilant in order to ensure that financial markets operate normally at all times.

Su perspectiva sobre la inflación fue consistente con la comunicación reciente de Banxico. Considera que los choques sobre la inflación general son transitorios y espera que la tasa de inflación pronto regrese a una tendencia hacia el objetivo de 3%:

Up to now, there is no evidence of secondary effects from recent changes in relative prices. Analysts’ short-term inflation expectations have increased somewhat, but expectations for the medium and long terms have remained stable, albeit above 3 percent. The Bank of Mexico expects inflation to return to the variability interval in the second half of this year, and to be very close to the permanent target in 2014.

Upside risks to inflation prevail, including greater-than-expected hikes to transportation prices, additional agricultural price pressures, given avian flu, low precipitation and reduced water levels in dams, and greater volatility due to uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy normalization.

The persistence of higher inflation carries the risk of fueling second-round effects that may contaminate the price and wage formation process. Thus, the Bank of Mexico Governing Board has warned that it will remain alert to adverse supply shocks in order to keep them from producing these effects so that the process of convergence to the permanent inflation target remains on track.